Chirps from Center Ice

Thanks for following with the blog for another year. Every time I get an inkling that I want to give it up, one of you come up to me from out of no where and thank me for my work that I put into it. So I guess I will keep going for a bit here. It’s appreciated. Especially in a day and age where the beats are long gone and the two papers send, “Staff Report” to every game, which is sad in a way. Where have you gone, Jonathan Bombulie, a valley turns its lonely eyes to you…

The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins won’t make the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs. They are going to finish last in the Atlantic Division. It’s been an abject failure of a season success wise for the Penguins. I don’t know what you can say on the developmental side. Since I have all this time on my hands now till October, perhaps I’ll give myself a summer writing assignment.

• Quips on every player that played for the Penguins.
• A Calder Cup Preview.
• A revisit of the predictions I made at the start of the season.
• Whatever offseason changes they make.
• Whatever offseason signings they make.

I expect a housecleaning. The GMs of both Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre to be fired, coaching staffs from both fired as well and a down to the studs rebuild starting in the front office as soon as this coming Monday.

Does this make them Penguins Stanley and Calder Cup contenders next season? Hardly. Does it stop the plummet from once respected NHL / AHL franchises? Depends on who the new leadership is. Are they capable? How much stock do they put towards developing and winning at the AHL level? That stuff matters. Pittsburgh stinks because they emptied the cache at the expense of winning back to back Stanley Cups, which you do if you can, but did little to restock (hard to when you give away draft picks) and tried to replenish with retreads that fall apart just like the retreads you see on the sides of interstates when the tractor trailers which pound by at 70 mph on a daily basis lose them trying to get to their next destination.

What’s the destination for the Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins in 2023-24 and beyond? I guess that’s why they tell you to stay tuned.

Now to the matter at hand, a road trip to the playoff bound Hartford Wolf Pack and then a home game Saturday night for a summer send off against the Charlotte Checkers.

Hartford is a team I wouldn’t want to draw in the first round if I’m one of the higher seeded Atlantic Division clubs. I think they are capable of winning a playoff round.

Charlotte is a three seed and if the playoffs started today (the Wednesday afternoon I am writing this and not the Friday morning or whenever you are reading this) the Checkers and Wolf Pack would square off as the 3 seeded Checkers would play the 6 seeded Wolf Pack.

I like Hartford’s chances there. Which doesn’t bode well for the Penguins as the Wolf Pack are still outside contenders for as high as the three seed in the division, if everything breaks their way.

Perhaps I’m discounting the Checkers though, as rarely does a #1 seed run the table (exception being Chicago last season) and win it all, but that battle is out in the Western Conference this season and not here in the East. Charlotte has been a consistent three seed all season. They could surprise, win a few rounds and who knows.

That still doesn’t bode well for the lame duck Penguins, who will probably play a bunch of kids to round out the 72 game season.

Conor O’Donnell and Rob Hennessey run the show up in Hartford this Friday with Kirsten Welsh and Matt Heinen on the lines. For Saturday, Patrick Hanrahan and Jordan Watt make sure they play within the rules and Jud Ritter and J.P. Waleski will make sure they stay on sides.

That bulleted list up top isn’t in order. It’ll probably be a revisit of the predictions, a Calder Cup Preview, a blurb on each player, who got fired, who got hired and who they signed in that order, depending on how the news breaks.

Here’s one final song to play this venture out. I’ll probably have a write up of sorts for you both nights, my niece’s 5th birthday party falls Saturday evening in Nanticoke so I don’t know if I’ll be able to catch my scratch off for a McDonalds small fry and watch other folks I never heard of win player jerseys who won’t be around next season in person which sucks, but it’s my niece and family first. Thanks again for reading, I’ll have some content for you here on the blog during the offseason and Let’s Go Pens!

Six games left, all against playoff teams or teams fighting for playoff positioning, and three this week starting with the penultimate home game this Wednesday against the Charlotte Checkers for the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins.

The team hasn’t won clean since March 19 in Allentown, hasn’t won at home since March 17 in a shootout (February 22 against Lehigh Valley if you go back to when they last won clean in regulation)

That’s sad. The issue is blowing third period leads. Somehow, the Penguins are 14-1-4-3 when leading after two periods. So that’s eight blown leads which end up in clean losses (1) or shootout or overtime losses (7) for a total of nine points lost total (the two points they lost with the regulation loss and the seven other points they lost as loser points) – take half of that, say, five, and you have 68 points as opposed to 63; five points off a playoff spot as opposed to ten.

Math being what it is, it’s more advanced to see who they blew the leads against and I don’t have the time nor the desire to dive that deep to see how it factors into the points as they are today.

They took two points out of the weekend last after blowing a 3-1 lead in the third to Syracuse and losing in overtime 4-3 Saturday, and losing Wednesday to Providence in a shootout 4-3. The week prior in had to have it games, they lose to Lehigh Valley 3-2 in overtime on March 25 then lay an egg against a team they needed to beat in Hartford and lose that game 5-1.

So it’s over. They can only max out at 75 points provided they win out but if Lehigh Valley (74 points, in fifth place) or Hartford (73 points, in sixth place) get there first, it’s over officially.

We knew this, weeks ago. They aren’t a playoff team. They don’t deserve the spot because they are mediocre role players, a one dimensional team who’s best player (Alex Nylander) was keeping a press box seat warm in Pittsburgh until he was re-assigned back to the AHL on Monday and who’s defenders can’t defend and goaltending who’s either hurt all the time or past their primes. How sad is it that I think their best player right now is Taylor Gauthier, their backup goaltender. Gauthier is 7-3-6, with a 2.75 GAA and a .906 SV%.

Pretty sad. Tough scenes.

Charlotte comes to town after getting swept at home by Springfield for three straight. That’s a likely playoff preview between those two teams. Checkers went from a potential challenger for the top two in the division and now may not even host a first round best-of-three playoff series.

Wilkes-Barre then hits the road for Providence on April 7 then Bridgeport on April 8 before heading up to Laval on April 10 for a makeup date with the Rocket. They then hit Hartford next Friday, April 14 before closing out the 2022-23 campaign at home against Charlotte again.

Providence is slumping. They were just overtaken by Hershey for the top spot in the Division and needed a shootout to beat the Pens Wednesday, were shutout 5-0 to Hartford Friday night then Bridgeport comes to town Saturday and beats them 5-2. They already clinched a spot, maybe this is the last piece of vulnerability that they have to get through before they go on what I’m expecting is a deep run into the Playoffs. Who knows, though.

Bridgeport is in a battle straight up with Hartford for the final playoff spot. They won a kids day game against Springfield in overtime on Tuesday then head to Hartford for a massively important game Friday before hosting the Pens this Saturday.

Equally so for Laval, who are in a three team battle with Belleville and Cleveland for the final spot in the North. The Rocket will have hosted Cleveland then traveled to Syracuse before returning home to face the Penguins this coming Monday.

And the Penguins? Planning on mid-April vacation most likely. I’m heading to Virginia Thursday, so if you don’t see me at the game Wednesday I’m likely just resting up for the trip Thursday morning. I will be back next week in time for next Saturday’s send off against Charlotte.

Out the door, here are the crews scheduled to work the four games at issue this week for the Penguins:

Jonathon Sitarski and Adam Tobias with Jud Ritter and Tyler Loftus on the lines Wednesday in Wilkes-Barre.

In Providence Friday, it’s Riley Brace and Tyson Stewart with Kenneth Gates and Matt Heinen on the lines.

It’s Stewart again Saturday in Bridgeport with Jordan Samuels-Thomas and Trevor Disbennett and Nick Briganti on the lines.

I don’t have Monday’s crew. I’m sure they are capable humans.

I should be recapping the away games from the campfire, provided it doesn’t get that cold.

Talk to you again in a bit.

Seven points out, nine games to play. You can read it on their faces, hear it in their voices and see it in their body language. When the biggest thing to look forward to is a uniform dedicated to pizza this Saturday, you know that you have reached the end of the line.

–

I want to take a comment from the YouTube I pulled this from on these five:

Can we pause a moment to let this sink in? Tom Petty (already a world-wide star on his own), George Harrison (a freaking Beatle for God’s sake, as well as successful on his own), Bob Dylan (THE Bob Dylan, troubadour for an entire generation), Roy Orbison (one of the most distinctive and original voices of foundational rock in the 1950s), Jeff Lynne (the founder and driving force behind ELO, the successor to the Beatles) – five epic-level musicians in a room recording tunes. We will NEVER see the like again.

Let that serve as this weeks Quote.

Anyway, the Penguins are finished. They are still not mathematically eliminated (yet) but after blowing a lead against Lehigh Valley Saturday and then laying an egg against a team they had to beat in Hartford, it’s curtains on the season.

Like the song says above, “It’s all right…”

The Setup

First place and Calder Cup Finals favorite Providence stops in Wednesday, a trip to Allentown Friday and then Syracuse at home Saturday.

I can see them winning all three games. Providence lollygags through a Wednesday road game in Pennsylvania and loses 3-2. Lehigh Valley plays Jekyll and Hyde again and loses 5-0 and then the Penguins beat the Crunch in a shootout.

Does that put them closer to a spot in playoffs? Sure! Is it enough? Probably not!

So where do we go from here?

I have no idea. They are cooked. I said this weeks ago. Their coach probably won’t be around next year despite having another year on the contract. Message isn’t getting through. Maybe it is, and the players aren’t talented to execute that message. But you don’t fire players, you fire coaches.

J.D. Forrest hasn’t earned the privilege of returning, in my opinion. But, if you are given three flat tires and an engine only running on five cylinders, you aren’t going to get far either.

Defenders are awful, wet behind the ears, or just checked out. Forwards are the same way. It’s hard to have a bunch of role players carry you to wins week after week. Who is their best prospect? Yeah, I don’t know either.

But again, it’s all right. Just ridin’ around in the breeze. It’s all right.

Who’s running the show?

Jim Curtain and Jordan Deckard are here Wednesday with Patrick Dapuzzo and J.P. Waleski on the lines.

I don’t have Friday or Saturday’s crew yet.

Looking ahead…

Charlotte at home next Wednesday, then they hit the road to Providence next Friday and Bridgeport next Saturday and then play a makeup game against Laval on Easter Monday.

Give us a bold prediction…

Pens will be eliminated from playoffs for good by the middle of next week.

So after taking 5 of 6 points this past weekend in an impressive showing of work and being still in touch with a playoff spot, well, let’s just get to the music to set the mood part…

Music to Set the Mood…

It ain’t over till it’s over.

A Quote…

It ain’t over till it’s over.
— Yogi Berra

So you can sense a theme here. It seems like it’s in the fan contract with this team that no matter what, you have to have hope. It’s always hope.

I still think we are on track for an early spring, but after a 0-3 comeback against a game Rochester Americans team that won eight straight against the Penguins, and then being the better team in Syracuse and then crushing a rested Phantoms team Sunday in the third game in three days, the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins are showing life and aren’t dead yet.

Transactions

Filip Hallander, on a whim, flew to and back from Dallas, Texas on Thursday. He and Dustin Tokarski were recalled Thursday but when it was revealed that Hallander’s services weren’t needed, Hallander was sent right back.

Coal Street signed Jagger Joshua to an AHL contract earlier this week. He will join the team on an Amateur Tryout Contract.

The Setup

Lehigh Valley again Saturday on Star Wars Night, which will likely be a sellout or close to it, then a 5:05 Hartford Sunday home game. Very important games.

Both the Penguins and Phantoms will be rested, as neither will play games until Saturday.

Hartford, a team that the Penguins are chasing, host Springfield Friday and Saturday and will be playing a third game in three days.

On an Island

That other team, Bridgeport, holds the sixth and final playoff spot in the Atlantic, and played Laval Wednesday and won 5-3 and are in Belleville Friday before calling it a weekend.

Laval is in a dogfight with Belleville, who is playing some inspired hockey as of late. So this is a prime time for the Penguins to get some help from out of town, handle what’s in front of them, and see where things shake out at the close of business Sunday evening.

Records

Hartford is 2-5-0-2 against Springfield this season and 2-0-1-1 against the Penguins.

Pens are 5-3-1-1 against the Phantoms and 2-2 against the Wolf Pack.

Small sample size, but Bridgeport is 1-0 against Belleville this season.

Here’s what it looks like at the bottom of the Atlantic…

6. Bridgeport – 10 games remaining – 66 points.
——
7. Hartford – 11 games remaining – 63 points.
8. PENGUINS – 11 games remaining – 60 points.

I mean if it gets tight and the Pens miss over the Wolf Pack by a point or two, they can probably point back to those games where they won in OT or a shootout, where they give Hartford a point and don’t beat them clean. I don’t think it will cut that close but it’s worth mentioning.

So what are they doing right? What are they doing wrong?

I think they realized that Alex Nylander isn’t walking through that door any time soon, so the role players stepped up in a big way. Justin Addamo scored a goal in every game last weekend. Drake Caggiula was their best player. I think not having Mitch Reinke in the lineup was a blessing in disguise for them. Here’s what I mean…

The first two Rochester goals last Friday. That’s Mitch Reinke coasting on the first goal and getting caught flat footed on the second. Yeah, the Pens weren’t able to cash against Lehigh Valley’s 32nd out of 32 teams penalty kill on Sunday, but it’s a trade off. His defensive adventurism costs the team goals against which you can’t get back as opposed to goals for, which you can score at any time, for the most part.

Also, Taylor Fedun going up to Pittsburgh is also a blessing.

The only thing I would say they are doing wrong is going 1/9 on the power play this past weekend, but it’s a trade off to winning games and losing what I think is causing them to lose those games in Reinke’s injury and Fedun’s callup, despite Reinke’s effectiveness on the power play.

Keep Tyler Sikura, Filip Hallander and Jonathan Gruden going. Peter DiLiberatore is a diamond in the rough, defensively. Josh Maniscalco is rough around the edges, but you hope (there’s that word again) they can coach the bad parts of the game out of him. I think they have enough to get by with Jon Lizotte, Jack St. Ivany and Andrew Nielsen so we will see.

I think the quality of opponents they beat last week (Rochester, Syracuse) are better than the quality of opponents they face this week (they already beat Lehigh Valley Sunday, they play them against Saturday, Hartford isn’t that good) but sadly, none of those teams mentioned in this sentence are winning the Calder Cup. Which leads me to my next point…

Looking ahead…

Providence is a team which I think will go far this postseason.  They lead the division over Hershey by three points coming into Friday. That thing I said about hope at the beginning? What are we hoping for? Hope for playoffs? Hope for a Calder Cup? It’s both, because you can’t have one without the other, but the Penguins aren’t winning the Calder Cup this season. The Bruins, however, are probably one of three teams (Calgary and Toronto being the others) with strong odds to win it all.

The Pens play Providence at home next Wednesday, then against the Phantoms again as they close out March. Home against Syracuse on Saturday to open April.

Who is running the show?

Stephen Hiff and Peter Schlittenhardt are here Saturday and Sunday with Jud Ritter and J.P. Waleski on the lines Saturday, then replaced by Patrick Dapuzzo and Ryan Knapp on the lines Sunday.

Give us a bold prediction…

Mitch Reinke returns, orchestrates the Penguins scoring on 75% of their power plays, plays a direct role in all of this, and wins AHL Player of the Week with 4 goals, 3 assists, all coming on the power play.

So if the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins have any shot at making the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs, they have to get a result out of each of the next three games played on consecutive days.

They may not have it in them. Face it, they have been outgunned and outclassed almost on a nightly basis. They have scored just one goal each in the last three games. Alex Nylander, which makes up a lot of their offense, is in the NHL.

But this is the AHL. Teams go on runs, stuff happens. Teams ahead of you in the standings stall and the teams behind those teams start running down hill and can’t stop.

Thing is, with 14 games left and 28 total points at stake, there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of time here.

Music to set the mood…

–

Yep, Mission Impossible. Not much of a movie buff, did the guy make it through the mission OK? Did he get what he wanted? Legitimately asking here.

A Quote…

Say goodnight, Gracie.
— George Burns

Personally, I think it’s a fools enterprise, what we are doing here, be we shall continue.

The Setup

A rare three in three, just the second this season for the Penguins. Prime to set the stage and get off on the right foot against tonight’s opponent Rochester, keep the ball rolling in Syracuse Saturday then empty the tank Sunday in Allentown.

Rochester is in a fight for the final spot in the North Division with Laval, Belleville and Cleveland. That is a lot of teams. They are trying to keep pace with Syracuse and Utica for the two seed. They won’t be an easy opponent. They played the Rocket on Wednesday and shut them out 2-0.

Syracuse had a measuring stick game with Providence Wednesday and lost 4-2. They will be in Bridgeport Friday. That offense is potent. Every time Trevor Carrick and Alex Barre-Boulet play the Penguins it seems like they run wild. Gotta mark those guys.

Lehigh Valley is a blood rival, are probably out of reach for the Penguins to catch with this little time and will have played Hershey Friday after hosting them and losing to them on Wednesday. The Phantoms will have Saturday off.

Wolves on an Island

The Islanders and Wolf Pack met in Hartford on Wednesday and Hartford won a 12 goal affair 7-5.

Hartford has Springfield at home on Friday, go to Bridgeport on Saturday and are off Sunday.

Bridgeport has Syracuse as I mentioned above on Friday and host the Wolf Pack.

There are two more head to heads with which involve the Islanders and Wolf Pack, one later this month and another in April.

Records

Only taking a look at the bottom three, the only ones that matter right now on Coal Street.

6. Bridgeport: 13 games left – 62 points.
————-
7. Hartford: 13 games left – 61 points.
8. Wilkes-Barre / Scranton – 14 games left, 55 points

Records against Whomst…

PENGUINS: 0-1 against Rochester, 0-2 against Syracuse, 4-3-1-1 against Lehigh Valley.
Hartford: 2-4-0-2 against Springfield, 4-5 against Bridgeport.
Bridgeport: 0-1 against Syracuse, 5-4 against Hartford.

Penguins score more than one goal and find a way to win the game challenge…

Wilkes-Barre has struggled against North Division teams, just 4-8-2 against the teams which reside there, and three of those wins have come against Cleveland. Syracuse gives the Penguins fits and Rochester treats the Penguins the way the Penguins treat Cleveland, easy two points. The Americans have won eight straight against the Penguins.

One goal simply isn’t going to cut it against the quality of opponents the Penguins are facing this weekend.

How do you overcome it? You get scoring from where it should come from (Valtteri Puustinen, if healthy Filip Hallander) and get secondary guys like Tyler Sikura, Drake Caggiula and Sam Houde to chip in. Find a way to get Andrew Nielsen and Peter DiLibertore in the lineup defensively. Get Ty Glover back in the lineup up front and scratch Jamie Devane.

Easier said than done, and likely impossible as recent history has shown.

Don’t be so hard on them, they are trying their best!

Listen, it’s a team full of role players put there by a hamstrung front office who has no prospects and an aging veteran core in Pittsburgh who are likely one and done in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, if they even make it. The problems you see up top with Pittsburgh are the same problems they have in Wilkes-Barre, save for the three hall of famers in 87, 71 and 58.

Goaltending is a mess and downright shoddy at times.
– Nothing in the hole in Wilkes-Barre. Filip Lindberg is made of glass and Taylor Gauthier is probably two years away, if not more. Dustin Tokarski has too many miles on him and his glory days are behind him.

Forwards are old and too much of a liability.
– The only prospect they have is Alex Nylander, who is already up with them, likely for good, and that leaves a massive hole in Wilkes-Barre. All the other call-ups (Hallander, Caggiula, etc.) were merit recalls. Nice work in Wilkes-Barre, here’s an NHL cup of coffee, don’t take your coat off cause you aren’t staying long. The rest in Valtteri Puustinen (doesn’t play defense), Nathan Legare (they fell out of favor with him), Corey Andonovski (needs about 25 more pounds) and Lukas Svejkovsky, Jonathan Gruden, etc. aren’t anything more than flash in the pan one and done NHL dime a dozen callups. These aren’t prospects, these are role players. Sam Poulin, coming back from a three month leave, isn’t saving this franchise.

Defense is old and too much of a liability.
– They have nothing in the way of defensive prospects. P-O Joseph is that prospect. Ty Smith showed flashes, but I think this is the wrong system for him. They have nothing else. Jon Lizotte, Taylor Fedun and Mitch Reinke are not NHL defensemen. They may be great guys, great teammates, whatever, but they aren’t NHL defensemen.

We fooled ourselves thinking this team was going to go somewhere after making it to a four seed and winning a playoff round last year, but the bottom fell out. They are cap strapped and have nothing in the way of prospects. It’s going to be some long, lean years in Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh.

Who is running the show?

Mike Sullivan and Ian McCambridge Friday with John Rey and Michael Magee on the lines.

Ian McCambridge again with Jim Curtin Saturday in Syracuse with Jason Brown and Sam Cucinotta on the lines.

Cody Beach and Jack Young Sunday in Allentown with Joseph Mahon and Ryan Knapp on the lines.

Looking ahead…

A Friday off, then Saturday and Sunday home games next week against the Phantoms and Wolf Pack, respectively. That Sunday home game against Hartford starts at 5. Yikes.

Give us a bold prediction…

We will all be back in October with the same anticipation that maybe, just maybe, this will be the year.

Here’s a look at the bottom four teams in the AHL’s Atlantic Division as we enter Wednesday:

5. Springfield Thunderbirds: 55 games played – 62 points
6. Bridgeport Islanders: 55 – 58
—-
7. Hartford Wolf Pack: 55 – 58
8. WBS Penguins: 55 – 55

Springfield is tied on points with fourth place Lehigh Valley with 62, but the Phantoms have another game played. Bridgeport are tied with Hartford with 58 points.

The Penguins have the remainder of head to heads with the following teams:

Lehigh Valley – 4
Springfield – 0
Bridgeport – 1
Hartford – 2

So it is going to be a lot of scoreboard watching.

The Penguins also have the third toughest strength of schedule percentage (.581) in the entire division behind Springfield (.595) and Charlotte (.591)

It’s a lot of ground to cover, and not a lot of head to head games left to have direct implications.

A Lesson to Set the Mood…

Et tu, Storm?

(Storm is Bridgeport’s mascot)

I think it’s important to focus on the out of town aspect…

I agree, somewhat. I’ll expound below, but for the sake of asking, here’s who has who this coming week:

Springfield: Home against Hartford, Providence and Laval.
Bridgeport: At Charlotte for three straight.
Hartford: At Springfield, Rochester and Toronto.
Penguins: Home against Toronto, Lehigh Valley and Utica.

Springfield is 5-1-1 against the Wolf Pack, 2-4-1 against Providence, and 0-1 against Laval.
Bridgeport is 1-2 against Charlotte.
Hartford is 2-3-2 against Springfield, 1-0 against Rochester and haven’t played Toronto yet. Marlies are the best team in the North Division, for what it’s worth.

The Penguins are 0-1 against Toronto, 4-2-1-1 against the Phantoms and 0-1 against Utica.

Okay, but what about worrying about your own house?

The Bad: They miss Ty Smith (possible broken jaw) and Jonathan Gruden (possible broken rib(s)) big time. Captain Taylor Fedun is a defensive mess. Head Coach J.D. Forrest can’t stop tinkering with the lineup. They have no secondary scoring whatsoever, what they do produce is overshadowed by shoddy defending or sometime suspect goaltending, as evidenced crystal clear as a bell last Wednesday in Hershey, where Taylor Fedun put on a masterclass of how not to defend, but were brought even by Justin Addamo and Alex Nylander, only to be let down by a boffo goal allowed by their veteran goaltender Dustin Tokarski.

Microcosm of the season summarized in one game? Yes.

Focusing on the good: The power play is lethal, bringing them back into games as you saw Sunday in Cleveland, jumpstarting them to four unanswered goals and a 6-4 win over the last place Monsters. You are starting to see some secondary scoring come to light with Ty Glover getting two goals Sunday and Raivis Ansons and Peter DiLiberatore scoring Saturday outdoors, but, back to the inconsistency of the lineup, where was Justin Addamo Saturday? Kid scores two goals in Hershey and is an aircraft carrier on the ice (my college coaches always said you can’t teach size) and he’s scratched for Drake Caggiula who was invisible on Saturday?

It’s mind boggling. Time is running out here. Even if you do run up to the six seed, is it worth getting smashed by three seed Charlotte (who have 56 games played and a 7 point cushion over Lehigh Valley at the four) who the Penguins are 3-2-1 against head to head? I don’t know.

Alex Nylander was recalled Tuesday, so there goes half the offense and a main power play threat. A seemingly more insurmountable feat just got more difficult.

Internal reflections…

Ask yourself this question. Are you good with missing playoffs or would you rather they make it as a six seed with virtually no shot of running the table?

I don’t personally know yet, but this weekend will be a good telltale sign of what’s to come, that’s for sure.

Under 30 words on who we face this week…

Toronto just runs team over but are 0-2 thus far on their Pennsylvania trip, dropping back to back 4-3 losses to Hershey and Lehigh Valley this past weekend.

Lehigh Valley are mercurial. They always will be under Ian Laperriere.

Utica is a big unknown. They are 4-0-1 coming into this week and 15 points back of Toronto but just a point clear of rival Syracuse.

Give me the crews…

Wednesday: Rob Hennessey and Michael Zyla with Brandon Grillo and John Rey on the lines.
Friday: Sam Bernier and Michael Zyla with Jud Ritter and J.P. Waleski on the lines.
Saturday: Sam Bernier and Dre Barone with Josh Cleary and J.P. Waleski on the lines.

Looking ahead…

Rochester at home next Friday, at Syracuse Saturday and at Lehigh Valley Sunday.

Realistically, what do you think happens…

They find a way to lose against the Marlies, beat Lehigh Valley clean and take a point from Utica. Out of town, they inch to within two points of the six seed, and we are probably doing this same exercise some time next week.

Give us a bold prediction…

One of these days I will figure out a format with these Weekend Previews and stick to it throughout the course of the season…

It’s not good.

Last night, the Bridgeport Islanders played a rare Thursday game and burned a game in hand the had on the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins and won that game against the Belleville Senators 5-1.

Here’s what it did to the standings in the AHL Atlantic. Remember that the top six teams make it.

Is it too soon for this? I don’t think so. We are entering March, the final full month of regular season play in the AHL in a few days, so no, it is not too early to start talking about this.

Penguins are three back of an Islanders team on even games played and don’t exactly play Bridgeport well. They have Hartford in between who have been mini-surging, winning three straight, looking to keep up.

Here’s who has who this weekend:

Penguins

At Syracuse (3rd in he North, 53 points) on Friday.
Home against Belleville (last in the North, 45 points) on Saturday.

Hartford 

At Syracuse Saturday.

Bridgeport

Home against Charlotte (3rd in the Atlantic, 62 points) on Saturday
Home against Lehigh Valley (5th in the Atlantic, 55 points) on Sunday

Expanding on the divisional standings, Springfield is 4th at 50 games played and 56 points, Lehigh Valley has 51 games played and is 5th with 55.

So a run by the Penguins would most likely mean a run up the standings, possibly as high as fourth.

The Opponents

Toronto has opened up an eye popping 18 point lead on second Utica in the North Division. That race, barring a collapse, is over. So you are jockeying for the other home ice advantage with your rival Comets and trying to hold off runs by Laval, Rochester and Cleveland if you are the Crunch. They beat Utica 8-5 last Saturday and beat Rochester in overtime last Sunday. They have been off since. They are a good, solid team playing in a division with other good, solid teams.

The Penguins played the Crunch close in January, but that could have been the start of their downfall, as they lost that game in hand that they had on everyone in the division and just got straight beat by a team who was better then they were.

Belleville, on the other hand, isn’t good. Ravaged by injuries, seeing their head coach get fired for trading secrets, it hasn’t been a good year on the Bay of Quinte. The B-Sens (still feels weird typing that and having it not refer to Binghamton) beat the Penguins back in December. You might be able to go back to that game and say that it was the start of the downfall because they had no business losing to. Pens were on a 3-0-1 run at the time, while Belleville was 0-3. Pens would lose two more after that and haven’t really recovered as a top tier team since.

So I am expecting more hold on to your butt type games, like we saw Wednesday against Lehigh Valley.

Who’s in Goal?

Question about Dustin Tokarski’s availability. He got ran into late Wednesday and was shook up a bit, but stayed in. I haven’t seen any recalls up from Wheeling (yet) so it’s likely that Tokarski is OK and he goes Saturday against Belleville and you give Taylor Gauthier the net Friday in Syracuse against old pal Max Legace.

Belleville has had a revolving door of goaltenders, so it’s a tossup. They have Luke Richardson and Brian Wilson on the roster now, who knows if they will even make it to Wilkes-Barre Saturday. With the way the Penguins have been playing, it may not matter.

Refs Who Look Ahead

I mashed the sections together from the last time I did the Weekend Preview in case you haven’t noticed.

Casey Terreri and Adam Tobias work the Syracuse game with Rob Sauda and T.J. Dockery on the lines. Terreri takes the run down I-81 and meets up with Brandon Schrader with Patrick Dapuzzo and Jud Ritter working the lines on Saturday.

Pens open March Wednesday in Hershey then head to Cleveland for the outdoor game next Saturday at 1 against the Monsters then a Sunday matinee in Cleveland at 3.

Winnable games against Hershey and Cleveland. Pens have Hershey down to a science and always rough up the Monsters. Get 3 out of 4 points this weekend, propel yourself to a good week on the road and maybe you are closer to a four seed in mid-March than you are to the fourth tee in mid-April.

Music to lead you out the door…

Heard this pregame Wednesday night and it reminded me how much I sometimes miss the repetitive droning of terrestrial radio.