Chirps from Center Ice

Definitely the closest race in the AHL for a division lead, the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins, Hershey Bears and Norfolk Admirals are all battling to be at the top of the East Division at the end of the season. With the AHL switching to Conference seeding for playoffs, the division winners are seeded 1 through 3 with the next five best teams taking up the final spots.

Day by day, week by week, it is looking more and more that the Pens, Admirals and Bears no matter how hard they try, are just going to be unable to separate themselves from one another. Whomever wins the division will most likely not have to play another divisional opponent. Whoever loses out in the East Division race will most likely have to square off against either the Pens, Bears or Admirals.

I decided to reach out to a fan from the Norfolk Admirals and a fan from the Hershey Bears and run a five question discussion between the three of us as to the expectations of our respective teams over the final two months of the season. Find out more after the bump…

Representing the Hershey Bears is Steve a fan since the 1973-74 season. Representing the Norfolk Admirals is Scott, who grew up 10 minutes from Hershey and started playing hockey the old Hersheypark Arena at age 7. Scott ended up in the Hampton Roads area in 1998 when the ECHL’s Hampton Roads Admirals were alive. Then in the 2000s when they made the AHL jump became a fan ever since.

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1) Give me the number one reason why you think your team will win the East Division this year.

Jason: Barring major trades or injuries, a full accompaniment of players at both the Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre levels. This Penguins team is a team which learns from its mistakes and for the most part adjusts quite quickly. I also like our defense over both Hershey straight up and Norfolk’s over a long run.

Scott: Depth. Norfolk has seemed to capture just the right ingredients of veteran leadership and youthful exuberance. Norfolk can boast a “Kids Line” (all rookies) with multiple combinations of players as well as playing with seasoned vets like Mike Angelidis, P.C. Labrie or Trevor Smith. AHL veteran and stay at home defenseman Scott Jackson leads a young defensive corps that got a boost with the injection of Evan Oberg and Mike Kostka and have shut down opposing teams’ offense game after game. The Admirals have rarely found themselves outplayed or outmatched by any team and can roll four lines consistently from game to game. They’ve also shown they can make up for a few lapses in defensive play with quick offensive explosions, having had two, four goal periods in the past five games and outscoring their opponents 23 to 8 in that same stretch.

Steve: Our offense. We are the highest scoring team in the league with the best power play. We have experienced forwards that are used to high pressure games.

2) Give me the number one reason why you think your team will not win the East Division this year.

Scott: Call ups. With Tampa Bay announcing itself as a seller before the NHL trade deadline, it is almost a sure thing that a disruption of chemistry due to trade packages and recalls will cause Norfolk to stumble, rather than glide, into the post season. Once the Bolts’ fire sale is complete they’ll call up various players to evaluate what they’ve got on the shelf in order to plan for the summer and the following season.

Steve: Our defense. The defense has major problems getting the puck out of our zone, leading to turnovers and goals for the opposition. Also, the 5 on 5 play must improve because you can’t rely only on the power play.

Jason: We don’t have the firepower up front like Hershey has or the speed up front like Norfolk. As the season winds down, teams in playoff positions play tighter which usually leads to a lot of one goal games. Teams play desperate up-tempo hockey. I don’t think in a horse race that the Pens can run with Norfolk or Hershey at the forward position and on special teams.

3) Name the one team you don’t want to face in playoffs and why. (Penguins, Bears or Admirals)

Steve: That’s a tough one, as both teams could give Hershey problems. Norfolk’s speed and physical play can make things difficult for us. The Penguins defense can clog the middle causing a lot of blocked shots. If I had to pick, I guess I would rather play Norfolk because we’ve had more success against them.

Jason: The Admirals. I think we can beat Hershey in a seven game series. But first round playoff series this year is best of five, not best of seven. In a best of five series against Norfolk I don’t think we would have enough success to advance to the next round.

Scott: The Bears. While some players may shuffle out of Hershey from one year to the next, the Bears seem to always have a team full of guys that should be playing on a second or third line in the NHL.  They have a knack for making teams pay for the smallest mistakes and their puck control in the offensive zone, especially on the power play, is second to none.  Hershey also has Braden Holtby who, in my opinion, is much tougher to solve than any netminder the Pens have had between the pipes in the past few years.

4) Give me a team you would not want to face in the playoffs not named the Penguins, Admirals or Bears.

Scott: It’s really a toss-up between Albany or Charlotte. Albany has beaten the Admirals four times this year out of five meetings, and three of the four games were 1-goal games, two of which were 1-0 and 2-1, the third a 5-4 OTL, and the 4th a 3-1 loss.  Low scoring, able to hold on to a lead, that’s playoff hockey. The Admirals have faced Charlotte six times already and split the series. It’s a good rivalry and having played each other that many times over the season it’s easy to gather “intel” on the other teams style and tendencies. Granted, the playoffs are a different story, but there’s something to be said about seeing familiar faces on the opposition that could allow for a little lack of focus for either team. It’s just a great unknown.

Steve: Not sure about this one as I have not seen St. John’s yet. I guess of the teams I have seen Worcester would be one I would not want to see in a short five game series, mainly because they play with an edge and are very physical. Hershey has problems with that kind of team sometimes as they are not an overly physical team. Sure Joel Rechlicz is there, but I doubt he will play in the playoffs. Adjusting to a very physical team can take a couple of games which you can’t afford in a 5 game series. Plus Worcester has an all-star goaltender.

Jason: Most likely Syracuse. Having seen what the Crunch can do when they want to do it with the fact that Anaheim isn’t likely to make the playoffs. Barring a fire sale at the trade deadline the Crunch can surge and do what Binghamton did last year. Our radio guys talk all the time about what Syracuse is doing, even though they are buried in the basement of the Conference.

5) They say that it’s not the team you start with but it’s the team you finish with that defines how successful a club will be at the end of the year. That said, with the trade deadline looming give me a player or two which could potentially not be with your team come March 1.

Steve: This may come as a surprise but Braden Holtby may be traded and here is why I think so. I found it odd that he was called up last week and started the game when there were a lot of scouts from other teams at that game. I really don’t think this will happen but you never know. Not sure if anyone else would be available as Hershey made two trades a couple of weeks ago when they acquired Kevin Marshall and Mike Carman. They may be looking to add another defenseman so another forward could be available, just not sure who. With Washington having a new coach it’s hard to tell what they want to do and how this will affect Hershey. This is the most concerned I have been at trade deadline since we have been with the Capitals.

Jason: I’d be shocked if Eric Tangradi is still with the team after the trade deadline. He just has not panned out the way that the experts thought he would have and has been trapped in the AHL for almost his entire tenure as a Penguin. Does Pittsburgh add him as a sweetener to a deal for a playmaker up top with prospects and a couple of defensemen? (which the Penguins have a very deep pool of) As I say this, I will be saddened at the same time to see him go and relieved if he does stick around.

Scott: That’s a tough question, specifically because the Tampa Bay organization has not had any real prospects in the system until the last two years, primarily because of the circus act that was OK Hockey and the deals made with the devil to basically buy a Stanley Cup at the expense of draft picks. Tampa’s scouting team and GMs also didn’t have much luck before Brian Lawton came around, and as much as I think he was as qualified to manage a team as I am to perform brain surgery, he did manage to garner some good picks and set the Bolts up for development. I bring all this up because Tampa has finally figured out that the key to a long-term successful franchise is to build and develop from within, and that doesn’t leave many options with regards to trades. Blair Jones, James Wright, and Mike Vernace have already been dealt, and with what’s left of the roster I don’t see the Bolts parting with any of the prospects, and the vets wouldn’t really be an upgrade to any other NHL teams. When the Bolts do make any trades they’ll bring back draft picks and prospects, so the Admirals’ roster may get a few more new faces. I really do think that the only real roster changes the Admirals are going to see are going to be call-ups due to trades, but the list of guys going up will be short.  P.C Labrie, Trevor Smith, Mike Angelidis, and Evan Oberg are the only players I see that would make the transition for any longer than a few games, but when the Lightning are officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs we’ll see those guys returned to Norfolk, and it’s a guarantee they’ll all be back for the post-season (barring any injuries). I think we’ll see any impact changes to the Admirals roster happen in the off-season, and it’s a positive thing to know that Steve Yzerman is committed to a winning team in the AHL.

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I would like to thank both Scott and Steve for their time and well thought out responses and wish them the best the rest of the season and in the playoffs.

Let’s Go Pens!