Chirps from Center Ice

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Halfway there.

The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins have just completed an improbable comeback, stunning the regular season champion Providence Bruins and completing a “reverse sweep” in winning four straight games after being down three games to none. The Penguins became the first team in AHL history to win Game 7 on the road after being down 0-3 in a series. A remarkable, if not inconceivable, accomplishment.

However, the battle is only half over.

Standing in the way of the Calder Cup Finals are the Syracuse Crunch, who, haven’t lost a game in the postseason. They swept the Portland Pirates in Round One and then did the same thing to the Northeast Division Springfield Falcons in four games in Round Two.

The Penguins were 3-5 against the Crunch during the regular season. The Crunch shut out the Penguins three times, with three different goaltenders. It seemed, at times, that the Crunch just had the Penguins number this season.

The Crunch are led by Tyler Johnson, Brett Connolly and Ondrej Palat. Johnson is your MVP of the AHL. The trio have combined for 33% of the Crunch regular season goal scoring and a sum +71 combined!

With the Tampa Bay Lightning’s affiliation swap from Norfolk to Syracuse this off season  a lot of what is leftover from the team that won the Calder Cup makes up this Syracuse Crunch team. That guy Trevor Smith plays for us now and G Dustin Tokarski was traded to Montreal this season, but G Cedrick Desjardins is equally as formidable.

The people of Syracuse expected this unit to do exactly what they have accomplished to date. East Division Championship? Check. MVP of the AHL? Check. Sweep first round series? Check. Sweep second round series? Check. Sweep third round series?

Not so fast my friend. Here is the breakdown:

Forwards

The Crunch had ten forwards with ten or more goals during the regular season. The Penguins had only seven. The aforementioned Johnson, Connolly and Palat collectively were 81-99-180. The Penguins top three scorers were Chad Kolarik (31-37-68) Trevor Smith (23-31-54) and Riley Holzapfel (21-30-51) who are collectively 75-98-173. It actually isn’t that much of a difference on paper, but given the fact that the Crunch have three more forwards than the Penguins that have scored 10 or more goals, the advantage has to go the Crunch’s way in this department.

Advantage: Syracuse

Defense

The Crunch were tenth in the AHL in goals allowed in the regular season at 2.64 GA/game. The Pens led the league in goals allowed during the regular season at 2.34 GA/game. The Crunch relied more heavily on offense to win them games. That league leading 3.25 goals per game stat tells that story.

In the postseason, the Pens rank 4th in defense only allowing 2.20 / goals a game. The Crunch have only allowed 2.14 goals against in the postseason. The Penguins, after falling in an 0-3 series hole, only allowed the Providence Bruins to score two goals in four games.

Individually, take Mark Barberio’s 8-34-42 out of the equation and you have an even match up on defense. Looking at the numbers, it appears that all of the Crunch blueliners chip in offensively and put up decent enough numbers.

Advantage: Penguins, slightly, based on regular season. Penguins running away in the postseason.

Goaltending

The Crunch will rely heavily on Cedrick Desjardins. His backup is Pat Nagle, who spent all of the regular season in the ECHL. The Penguins have a 1A-1B option in goal. Although, after this historic series with Providence, Brad Thiessen is taking this Penguins team all the way.

Advantage: Penguins

Intangibles

The Crunch were slightly ahead of the curve on power play this year, ranking in at 12th, succeeding 17.4% of the time. The Penguins power play floundered in bottom third of the league for the most part all season before settling in at 22nd overall. However, in the postseason, the Penguins power play brought them back from the brink of elimination and sit at the top of the AHL in postseason play at 25.5%. That all said, I don’t think that a game in this series is going to be too heavily decided on special teams but if if does it’s still a toss up in my opinion.

The Penguins had far and away the best penalty kill all season. The Crunch showed themselves well, settling for 9th, but the Penguins get the edge in the penalty kill department.

The Crunch were a ridiculous 35-3-4-2 when scoring the first goal, best in the league. A fast start usually lead to a great finish for Syracuse this season. The Penguins were 7-2 in overtime this season while the Crunch were a very unimpressive 3-6. However, the Crunch are 2-0 in overtime in playoffs currently and the Penguins 2-1.

Rob Zettler pilots this Crunch team. He is the big unknown because Penguins Head Coach John Hynes hasn’t matched wits with him this season. Jon Cooper was “called up” to replace Guy Boucher after he was fired as head coach of the parent Lightning. I am going with Hynes here on the fact that he has guided this Penguins team to the second round of the playoffs for the third consecutive year and now past the second round in thrilling turnaround fashion. His adjustments as the series with Providence wore on turned the tide in favor of the Penguins. He and his staff broke down every.single.shift from Game 6.

Social Media Coverage:

For the Penguins:

Twitter: @WBSPenguins
Radio: @MikeOBrienWBS // @TGracePens
Beat: @CVBombulie
Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins
Fan Blogger: @nafsnep

For the Crunch:

Twitter: @SyracuseCrunch
Radio: @Dan_DUva
Facebook: /syracusecrunch
Beat: @syrhockey
Fan Blog: @Allovimo of Chairman How’s Glorious Army

A lot of teams were obliterated by last years Norfolk Admirals team, a squad that tore through the final four and a half months of the AHL season last year. That core moved to Syracuse. This current team sustained the success that was left over the year before. But the luster seemed to wear off as the season wore on. Yes, the Crunch won the East Division, the toughest division in the AHL. But the Binghamton Senators stayed in lockstep with the Crunch all season long and finished one point behind Syracuse then were swept away by the Penguins in the first round. The Crunch needed overtime twice to beat the Portland Pirates. Credit the resolve of the Crunch to never give up the fight, but what were they doing there in the first place? Then they dismantled a very solid Springfield team by sweeping them. However, I don’t think the Penguins are scared of the Crunch at all. That said, anyone wearing blue and white for the Crunch have the same mutual feelings for the Penguins. I see a dogfight brewing…

Prediction: Penguins in six. Goaltending, coaching and overall team defense is going to be the difference in this series. Yes, the Crunch may jump out to a lead in a game or a lead in the series. No, that won’t faze the Penguins.

Gameday for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals will be up here on the blog Saturday afternoon at 3 p.m.