Chirps from Center Ice

There are eight teams left in the Calder Cup Finals. These division previews look like they are going to be classic battles and some could go the distance.

Will they?

This is my stab at predicting a winner. I was 5-3 last round, and picked three of those five series perfectly, so let’s give it a go again!

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   Ontario (P1) vs. San Diego (P2)   
Pacific Division Final

How the Reign got here: Dispatched the San Jose Barracuda in four games, San Jose gave the Reign a fight, but Ontario was too good to lose in even a five game series.

How the Gulls got here: In a complete role reversal from the regular season, it was the Gulls that got the better of the Texas Stars. San Diego dominated special teams and that is enough to get by an opponent in the short five game series.

How they matchup: They met 12 times with San Diego going 8-4 over the Reign with the Gulls winning once in overtime and once in a shootout.

Key player so far for Ontario: Nic Dowd. Four points (2-2-4) in four games for Dowd. Honorable mention to Peter Budaj, the reigning Goaltender of the Year.

Key player so far for San Diego: Chris Mueller. Anything you can do, Nic Dowd, I can do better. 2-3-5 in four games, including a power play goal and an assist.

Prediction: Ontario in six. These are the Calder Cup Champions from last year who have experience in these big moments. Ontario’s big game background is enough to see them through to the Conference Finals.

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   Lake Erie (C2) vs. Grand Rapids (C4)   
Central Division Finals

How the Monsters got here: A sweep of the Rockford IceHogs. IceHogs didn’t put up much of a fight and Lake Erie breezed through.

How the Griffins got here: Swept the Central Division Champion Milwaukee Admirals. The streaky Griffins are on an uptick right now and that could spell bad things for the Monsters.

How they matchup: Met 12 times. Grand Rapids has the slight edge (7-4-0-1) to Lake Erie (5-3-3-1) in the head to head, and the stats on paper look dead even.

Key player so far for Lake Erie: Joonas Korpisalo. The Monsters goaltender is 3-0 with a 2.00 GAA and a .924 SV% so far in the series.

Key player so far for Grand Rapids: Martin Frk. 1-3-4 in four games so far for the Czech.

Prediction: Grand Rapids in seven. This has the makings of a roller coaster series between these two. Grand Rapids offense trumps Lake Erie’s inexperience and it’s the Griffins moving on.

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   Toronto (N1) vs. Albany (N2)   
North Division Finals

How the Marlies got here: Swept the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in three games. Came back from 4-1 down in Game 3 to win 6-4.

How the Devils got here: Beat Utica in four games. But for one slip up in overtime in Game 3 in Utica, Albany coasted.

How they matchup: They met six times. Toronto won two in overtime. Albany kept the Marlies honest all season at least on paper, but the Marlies were built in the beginning to be a juggernaut.

Key player so far for Toronto: Connor Carrick. Came over from the Washington organization and has flourished. His seven points far and away leads the Marlies.

Key player so far for Albany: Scott Wedgewood. Albany’s “backup” boasts a minuscule 1.93 GAA and a .922 SV%.

Prediction: One of two things will happen in this series. Toronto wins in a sweep or five games or Albany drags this to seven. I think Albany is too good to get swept but Toronto is too deep to lose in a Division Final. Toronto in seven.

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   Hershey (A1) vs. Wilkes-Barre (A3)   
Atlantic Division Finals

How the Penguins got here: Wilkes-Barre swept Providence in three games, all in overtime. Providence’s inexperience in pivotal moments was the key to their doom. An upset, for sure.

How the Bears got here: Beat Portland in five games. After losing in triple overtime in Game 3, Justin Peters only allowed one goal the rest of the way. Portland’s historical inability to close out an opponent on the brink cost them again.

How they match up: About as even as you can get between two teams. Penguins were 6-5-0-1 and the Bears were 6-5-1-0 in the head to head series between the two teams. Justin Peters, the hero against the Pirates this postseason, is 2-2-1 with a 3.45 GAA and a .884 SV% against Wilkes-Barre.

Key Player so far for Wilkes-Barre: Jake Guenztel. The rookie has  7 points in three games plus the series clinching goal for the Penguins over the Bruins.

Key Player so far for Hershey: Jakub Vrana. The Bears rookie leads the team in points this postseason.

Prediction: I’ll give it to you Tuesday.

Note: The Hershey Bears advance to the Atlantic Division Finals to take on the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins which begins Wednesday in Hershey. In case you missed the blog earlier, here are words and a schedule.

With the Divisional Semifinals over and the Division Finals set, it’s time for us to see how wrong I was in my first round predictions.

Wilkes-Barre / Providence

What I said: “Providence in four. Providence’s high powered offense overmatches the Penguins disarray of flavor of the week goaltending and Wilkes-Barre is blown away in four games.”

What actually happened: The exact opposite. The Penguins rode rookie Casey DeSmith over Tristan Jarry and he delivered, including a franchise high 59 saves in the series clincher. Providence’s offense never came to life, Wilkes-Barre swept in three games.

Lake Erie / Rockford

What I said: “Lake Erie in five. Monsters methodical, come at you from all sides tactics is enough to dismiss Rockford in the short five game series.”

What actually happened: Monsters advanced as expected, but it only took three games. Really expected Rockford, who came into the series and out of the regular season on a three game winning streak, to put up more of a fight. They didn’t.

Toronto / Bridgeport

What I said: “Toronto in three. Marlies will make this round easy.”

What actually happened: The blind squirrel found his nut. I was right. The Marlies swept the Sound Tigers easily.

Milwaukee / Grand Rapids

What I said: “Milwaukee in five. One of two series out West that goes the distance.”

What actually happened: Not only did I get the pick wrong, the Griffins, who came into the postseason losing five straight, sweep away the Central Division Champions in three games.

Albany / Utica

What I said: “Albany in four. Comets steal a game early, but the Devils correct, lock down and don’t let go.”

What actually happened: I got this one right too. Comets are too good to get swept, used home ice in Game 3 to steal a game in overtime but their Devils adjusted and blew the Comets out in Game 4 and it wasn’t close.

San Diego / Texas

What I said: Stars in four. San Diego steals one, probably in overtime, but the matchup heavily favors the Stars to advance.

What actually happened: The reverse, or Gulls in four. Take everything out of what you saw in the regular season between these two and toss it. San Diego dominated special teams and got an offensive shot in the arm when parent Anaheim lost Game 7 of their series with Nashville.

Ontario / San Jose

What I said: Ontario in three. It won’t be pretty for San Jose.

What actually happened: Barracuda took Game 2 but fell in four games to the Reign. If not for anything, San Jose gave the Reign a fight, which may have me leaning more in San Diego’s favor in the Pacific Division Finals.

Hershey / Portland

What I said: Bears in five. Of all the series in the East, this one goes the distance.

What actually happened: Bang biscuit. Got this one right too. Portland went up 2-1 in the series, but Justin Peters locked down and only allowed one goal the rest of the series. Portland’s historic inability to close a series continues to haunt them.

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5-3 in picks, got the Hershey, Albany and Toronto series perfect.

Monday, I get to do it all again with the Division Final Previews.

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The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins are the current leaders in the American Hockey League for most consecutive seasons (14) where they have qualified for the Calder Cup Playoffs. It is a remarkable feat for a modern day minor league team in a 30 team league that is so consistent in qualifying for a postseason berth giving itself the chance at the ultimate prize for any hockey player, coach, front office employee or fan. That is a championship trophy and celebration when it is all said and done that all the hard work of the season from preseason camp in September, to weekend three in threes, to grueling travel have led to this very moment where you can say that you are the champion.

For the Penguins, that day will come. Is this the year?

If the Providence Bruins have anything to say about it, the answer is no.

But let’s break it all down anyway.

Schedule

Atlantic Division Semifinals – Series “B” (best-of-5)
A2-Providence Bruins vs. A3-Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
Game 1 – Wed., Apr. 20 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
Game 2 – Thu., Apr. 21 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
Game 3 – Sat., Apr. 23 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05
*Game 4 – Mon., Apr. 25 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05
*Game 5 – Tue., Apr. 26 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05

* – if necessary

Forwards

The Providence Bruins have a very talented forward corps that starts with Seth Griffith (24-53-77) and is followed by Alexander Khokhlachev (23-45-68) and Austin Czarnik (20-41-61) and ends with Frank Vatrano (36-19-55) Czarnik and Vatrano are probably pegged for full time NHL work with parent Boston next season. This rookie duo have a combined 56 goals scored among them, just seven shy of the Penguins Dustin Jeffrey (20) Carter Rowney (24) and Tom Kostopoulos (19) combined. Vatrano took home Co-Rookie of the Year honors and in 36 games played for the Bruins, has 36 goals.

The Penguins offense heavily relied upon the aforementioned Jeffrey, Rowney and Kostopoulos. Dominik Simon, Kael Mouillierat and J-S Dea are the other three active Penguins who have 20 or more goals scored for Wilkes-Barre this season.

Advantage: Providence. I didn’t even mention Alexander Khokhlachev’s name after the first sentence. The Penguins have one, maybe two, scoring threats on the ice at any time. Providence can mix and match and have a threat to score every second of this series.

Defensemen

Since there are not analytics at this level, I am forced to strictly rely on the dreaded +/- category. In this, Providence’s defense corps of Matt Irwin (+1) Chris Casto (even) Tommy Cross (+5) and Ben Youds (+9) are a combined +15, while Wilkes-Barre’s Tim Erixon alone is a +14. Even shutdown defenseman Steve Oleksy is a +8.

Tracking players on ice when there is a goal scored, I maintained a chart that I updated weekly for all Penguins players. Tim Erixon leads active Penguin defensemen with a 61.62% GF% and offensive defenseman Will O’Neill is next on the list with a 60.39% GF%. O’Neill was on the ice 93 times when the Penguins scored a goal, or 40.4% of the time when you take into account that the Penguins scored a total combined 230 goals in the 2015-16 campaign.

Advantage: Penguins, strictly based off of numbers only.

Goaltending

The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins goaltending situation has been in a state of flux ever since Matt Murray was called up to Pittsburgh in late February to back up Marc-Andre Fleury. Rookie goaltender Tristan Jarry was handed the reins and started nearly every game in March until being recalled when Matt Murray was injured in the final regular season game the Pittsburgh Penguins played in Philadelphia against the Flyers.

To make matters even worse, Casey DeSmith, whom the Penguins signed to a PTO when Jarry went up to Pittsburgh, was apparently injured in Wilkes-Barre’s final regular season game against Hershey with an apparent lower body injury and is day to day. Head Coach Clark Donatelli hasn’t named a starter for Game 1 Wednesday but it could be Sean Maguire, a rookie out of Boston University that joined the Penguins after his college season ended or it could be Brian Foster, currently with the Wheeling Nailers, who has a disastrous 3.51 GAA and a .857 save percentage in just nine appearances for the Penguins.

I don’t even have to mention anything about Providence’s goaltending situation. Projected Game 1 starter Jeremy Smith was loaned out to the Iowa Wild at the beginning of the season but was recalled back when Malcolm Subban went down with injury in February and has a 2.02 GAA with a .934 save percentage since his return to Providence.

Advantage: Providence. End of story.

Intangibles

Coaching and special teams gets a mention here. Providence’s Bruce Cassidy is in discussion for a promotion to Boston come the Fall. He always has his team ready to play and in contention to win most nights. Clark Donatelli took over for Mike Sullivan once Sullivan was promoted to the head coaching position of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Donatelli’s record since assuming the coaching position is 25-22-4-2. To be fair, when Donatelli took over, most of the pawns that got the Penguins off to such a hot start were either recalled to or on their way to being recalled to Pittsburgh. In Donatelli’s defense, he has done a fair job of steering the ship towards a playoff spot. I can’t see one coach outfoxing the other in any circumstance here in a quick five game series.

Special teams wise, the Bruins had the AHL’s best power play, scoring 22.6% of the time, but only once in 29 tries against the Penguins in the six game regular season series. The Penguins have the seventh best power play in the AHL but only struck once in 25 tries against the Bruins. I’m still going to slightly lean towards Providence in the special teams department given all the firepower up front and the question mark for the Penguins in goal.

Social Media Coverage

For the Penguins…

Twitter: @WBSPenguins / @WBSGameDay
Radio: @MikeOBrienWBS / @_NickHart
Beat: @CVSethLakso and @TLTomVenesky
Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins
Instagram: wbspenguins

For the Bruins…

Twitter: @AHLBruins
Radio: No idea.
Beat: @MarkDivver
Facebook: /providencebruins
Instagram: ahlbruins

Prediction

Bruins in four. Providence’s high powered offense overmatches the Penguins disarray of flavor of the week goaltending and Wilkes-Barre is blown away in four games. Penguins steal one game, probably a nail biter in overtime but that’s all she wrote. Additions from Pittsburgh in the form of either a goaltender in Tristan Jarry or more offense in the form of Daniel Sprong, whose junior season ended Sunday, do little to help the Penguins who will likely be overmatched and run out of the building by names like Vatrano, Khokhlachev and Czarnik.

Hey, I would love to be wrong, but I’m calling it as I see it. Gameday for Game 1 hits the blog Wednesday afternoon at 3.

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The 2016 Calder Cup Playoffs are upon us. I’m shaking things up this year on the blog and just doing one preview for the blog instead of breaking down the Western Conference one day and the Eastern Conference the next.

Pretty much self-explanatory. I go out on a limb and offer predictions in each series (except the Penguins / Bruins series, which gets the full work-up Tuesday) and give a thumbnail sketch on each team.

So let’s get to it…

Eastern Conference

   Hershey (A1) vs. Portland (A4)   

How the Bears got here: When Wilkes-Barre got off to its strong start, it was looking like the Penguins were going to run away with things, but then injuries befuddled the Penguins organization and the Bears remained steady in winning games and staying on pace. The rest of the division was too inconsistent. Bears won the division easily.

How the Pirates got here: Portland played slightly better than Bridgeport and Hartford down the stretch for fourth place in the final weeks of the season, going 6-3-1 to Bridgeport’s 4-5-1 and Hartford’s 5-5.

How they match up: The Bears went 5-5 against the Pirates, including one overtime win. Hershey is the third highest scoring team in the AHL, Portland was 11th in defense.

Key Player for Hershey: Chris Bourque, league MVP is the obvious choice.

Key Player for Portland: Rob Schremp. The Pirates All-Star led Portland in games played and points.

Prediction: Bears in five. Of all the series in the East, this one goes the distance.

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   Providence (A2) vs. Wilkes-Barre / Scranton (A3)   

How the Bruins got here: When parent Boston missed the playoffs, the Bruins offense was injected with Frank Vatrano who has scored a goal per game for the Bruins. Providence won their final five games in a row to edge past the Penguins for the two seed.

How the Penguins got here: Started the season strong, lost personnel to recall to Pittsburgh as well as their head coach. Have played at or near .500 since. Could not withstand Providence’s late charge in final weeks.

How they match up: Wilkes-Barre won the first two games in the six game season series, but Providence rattled off the last four wins. The P-Bruins have the leagues best power play but only scored once in 29 tries against the Penguins. They also have the leagues second best penalty kill.

Key Player for Providence: Co-Rookie of the Year Frank Vatrano, who scored 36 goals in 36 games.

Key Player for Wilkes-Barre / Scranton: Carter Rowney. The little known Rowney played his way into an NHL contract with Pittsburgh next season and led the Penguins in points.

Prediction: I am not giving it away here. Check back Tuesday for the full series breakdown.

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   Toronto (N1) vs. Bridgeport (A5)   

How the Marlies got here: By being the best team in the AHL from wire to wire.

How the Sound Tigers got here: Qualified on the last weekend of the regular season. Couldn’t win to improve their seeding and drew the odds on favorite to win the Calder Cup.

How they match up: These two teams did not face each other so it’s the classic David vs. Goliath matchup.

Key Player for Toronto: Defenseman of the Year T.J. Brennan, whose +/- was +34. He overshadows fellow defenseman Andrew Campbell, who had a +/- of +39.

Key Player for Bridgeport: Bracken Kearns led the Sound Tigers in scoring.

Prediction: Toronto in three. Marlies will make this round look easy.

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   Albany (N2) vs. Utica (N3)   

How the Devils got here: They played in the wrong division. Albany would have won the Atlantic if they played there. They flew under the radar all season on strong defense and timely scoring.

How Utica got here: Comets feasted on the bottom feeders in the division, going a combined 20-10-3-1 against Syracuse, St. John’s Rochester and Binghamton.

How they match up: The Devils went 6-0-2 against Utica this season. Albany is the stingiest team in the AHL for shots allowed, suppressing opponents to 24.41 shots per game. The Comets led the AHL in shorthanded goals for with 17.

Key Player for Albany: Strength in numbers. Nearly every Devils player has a positive plus minus. Scott Wedgewood went 14-3-3 with a minuscule 1.55 GAA and a .933 SV%.

Key Player for Utica: Carter Bancks. Heart and soul of this Utica team and a guy that appeared in every game for the Comets.

Prediction: Albany in four. Comets steal a game early, but the Devils correct, lock down and don’t let go.

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Western Conference

Admittedly, didn’t see much Western Conference this season, maybe but for the occasional game here or there on AHL Live. Buyer beware on these predictions…

   Milwaukee (C1) vs. Grand Rapids (C4)   

How the Admirals got here: Winners of the Central Division, consistently stayed well above average the other contenders in the division. Only other team with 100 or more points was Toronto.

How the Griffins got here: A team primed at the start of the season to run away with the Central and be a strong contender for the Calder Cup stumbled out of the gate. Streaks chased this team all season long.

How they match up: Every game was decided in regulation. The Admirals went 3-5 against the Griffins this season. Milwaukee has the leagues second best power play. Grand Rapids is 5th in the AHL in offense and 6th in the AHL in defense.

Key Player for Milwaukee: Goaltender Juuse Saros. The rookie Saros went 29-8 and was overshadowed in the West when it came to awards.

Key Player for Grand Rapids: Eric Tangradi 28 goals and 28 assists in 72 games for the power forward.

Prediction: Milwaukee in five. One of two series out West that goes the distance.

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   Lake Erie (C2) vs. Rockford (C3)   

How the Monsters got here: Remained consistent in the face of inconsistency around them with the likes of Rockford and Grand Rapids.

How the IceHogs got here: Fizzled in the final month but finished strong.

How they match up: The Monsters were 4-4 over the IceHogs this season, with one overtime win. If Lake Erie scores first, forget about it. The Monsters went 28-2-3-3 when scoring first. The IceHogs were 3-10 in the gimmick known as three on three overtime.

Key Player for Lake Erie: Group effort. T.J. Tynan led the Monsters with 46 points. Lake Erie was the third stingiest team in the AHL on defense. It’s no one player that can beat you, which makes the Monsters so dangerous.

Key Player for Rockford: Vinnie Hinostroza. The rookie center led the IceHogs in scoring.

Prediction: Lake Erie in five. Monsters methodical, come at you from all sides tactics is enough to dismiss Rockford in the short five game series.

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   Ontario (P1) vs. San Jose (P4)   

How the Reign got here: The reincarnate Calder Cup Champions never missed a beat and remained a force in the Pacific Division, where they led wire to wire.

How the Barracuda got here: Got in on the last day of the playoffs. Their .537 winning percentage is lowest amongst qualifying playoff teams.

How they match up: The Reign went 9-3 against the Barracuda this season, with three overtime wins. Ontario was the top defensive team, allowing just 2.03 goals to opponents per game.

Key Player for Ontario: Peter Budaj. The AHL’s best goaltender went 42-14-4 with a 1.75 GAA and a .932 save percentage. He will be the difference maker.

Key Player for San Jose: Ryan Carpenter. San Jose’s leading scorer was also a team best +20.

Prediction: Ontario in three. It won’t be pretty for San Jose.

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   San Diego (P2) vs. Texas (P3)   

How the Gulls got here: Defended home ice, 20-10-3-1 at Valley View Casino Center.

How the Stars got here: If the Stars played in a division where everyone played the same amount of games, in this division they still face San Diego, but would have home ice.

How they match up: The last team the Gulls wanted to face were the Stars, who they only beat once.

Key Player for San Diego: Rookie Defenseman Brandon Montour. 57 points that tied him with Chris Mueller in the team lead in points.

Key Player for Texas: Stars had nine players with 40 or more points. They can come at you from all angles.

Prediction: Stars in four. San Diego steals one, probably in overtime, but the matchup heavily favors the Stars to advance.

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Let me know if you are agree or disagree here. My full Preview of Pens / P-Bruins with an actual prediction hits the blog Tuesday.