Chirps from Center Ice

A fan blog about the AHL's Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins

Category Archives: The AHL

So You Wanna Win Your Division?

The rematch is set.

The Providence Bruins knocked off the Springfield Falcons tonight in Springfield, MA by a score of 6-3 and advance to the second round of the Calder Cup Playoffs to face the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins. The Penguins will have home ice as the high seed.

You must be thinking, “Higher seed? Wait, the Penguins were a 6 seed I thought I saw you write a few weeks ago?” Right. All three division winners (Manchester, Springfield and Binghamton) were bounced in the first round by their opponents.

Here’s the schedule:

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Series “J”
6-W-B/Scranton Penguins vs. 7-Providence Bruins
Game 1 – Fri., May 9 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05 
Game 2 – Sat., May 10 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05 
Game 3 – Wed., May 14 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05 
Game 4 – Fri., May 16 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05 
*Game 5 – Sat., May 17 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05 
*Game 6 – Mon., May 19 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05 
*Game 7 – Wed., May 21 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05 
*if necessary… All times Eastern

St. John’s and Norfolk play in the other Conference Semifinal. That should be fun. Norfolk didn’t play St. John’s this year. Second time this postseason that the IceCaps fly blind into a series where they haven’t faced an opponent. The IceCaps played the Albany Devils in the first round.

Anyway, I’ll run a stats pack at you Sunday similar to what ran last Sunday. I already built the Wilkes-Barre one courtesy of Joy’s tweets earlier today and will build the Providence one tomorrow.

Since we are talking next Friday before we start, a lot of time to break down the series. The Series Preview will run Thursday here on the blog.

Let’s Go Pens!

Thursday Transitions

Just a few newsy things going on that I wanted to touch on at near or surrounding the Penguins as a whole now or at some point in the future….

— The Phantoms are moving to Allentown, PA this Fall and the Abbotsford Heat who are vacating British Colombia at the end of the season may be headed to the Phantoms old stomping grounds in the Adirondacks, according to this report.

— The Wheeling Nailers have their next opponent lined up. It’s the Greenville Road Warriors, coming off of a six game series with the Kalamazoo Wings. The series between the Nailers and Warriors begins Saturday in Wheeling.

— The brain trust on Coal Street has a new playoff blog that you can check out in the Quest for Calder. They have a bunch of multimedia things there including SendToNews clips of after practice and game interviews with coaches and players. Definitely worth taking a look at.

In case you were wondering, there hasn’t been an announcement from the League on any supplemental discipline to Binghamton defenseman Mark Borowiecki on his boarding penalty to Anton Zlobin. Zlobin left the game after the hit and did not return. Borowiecki was assessed just a 2:00 minor and that was it. Do the Penguins send tape to the league? If they do, is there a suspension coming? It’s rare that you see suspensions with this type of circumstance in the regular season. I’d be shocked if Borowiecki was suspended, honestly.

Game 4 setup hits the blog Friday at 3 p.m. You have to think that the Penguins want to come out with the killer instinct put the B-Sens away tomorrow. My initial guess is that the longer the game remains close, the more it benefits the Senators. Who knows though, because the series has remained close since the first puck drop last Friday. The Penguins have seen leads evaporate in the third period against Binghamton twice now. Who knows? All I know is that while I do enjoy the drive and my time in and around BInghamton, I am not planning on nor would I look forward to, a trip up there Monday for a deciding Game 5.

Thinking Too Hard…*

If you know me or follow me on any kind of social media, you know that I struggle with mathematics.

I have to stop myself some nights after a Penguins win on a Wednesday in December from being too wordy and typing out 600, 700 or 800 words. But ask me what 45+27 is?

Hold, on. I need a calculator.

You may be seeing the term “Corsi” or “Fenwick” when it comes to this new fangled term they call “advanced analytics” in hockey. I don’t get it. It’s probably my own ignorance to the fact that I struggle with simple math. It also may be a hint of jealousy that those “advanced” statistics are available in the NHL but not in the AHL, which is my wheelhouse. Really, how hard is it to get ice time numbers between Wilkes-Barre and Hershey on a Friday night?

Anyway, I’m bloviating on a subject I ignore that I am making out of a blog post, courtesy of some charts that Joy Lindsay tweeted Sunday afternoon. Just some basic numbers inside of numbers next to more numbers on top of numbers.

First, for the B-Sens. Please click on the chart to enlarge for texture…

[tweet https://twitter.com/PuckJoy/status/460518609005977600]

Then the Penguins, after I asked Joy if she had one for Wilkes-Barre….

[tweet https://twitter.com/PuckJoy/status/460533261593092096 hide_thread=’true’]

More in depth even strength, power play and shorthanded numbers….

[tweet https://twitter.com/PuckJoy/status/460550956585738240 hide_thread=’true’]

 

So what’s the immediate takeaway two games into a five game series?

— Tom Kostopoulos, Adam Payerl and Anton Zlobin have been the only players for Wilkes-Barre that haven’t been on the ice when a goal has been scored against the Penguins. Mark Stone for the B-Sens has been the only player for Binghamton that hasn’t been on the ice for the B-Sens when the Penguins have scored.

— Mike Carman had an immediate impact, scoring a goal and being on the ice for another.

— I didn’t want to believe what I was reading about Simon Despres on social media. The chart doesn’t lie.

— Patrick Mullen, a late add for the B-Sens blueline coming over from Utica, with some impressive numbers. The best statistical defenseman in the series so far based off of these charts.

— I don’t think we see Spencer Machacek for the rest of the series, and may be so brazen to say that we may have seen the last of him for the rest of the year.

— Anybody in Binghamton worried about the play of Alex Grant and Derek Grant? Two of your better players are getting beat up even strength.

Small snapshots, but something to watch going forward. If there is something else that you see in these charts that jumps out at you, please share it in the comments.

* – headline complements of a category that the great Michael Fornabaio uses occasionally when talking numbers, charts and things like this

Penguins / Senators Series Preview

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Eleven times walking up to the window, eleven times walking away from the window empty handed. Such has been the case for the past eleven postseasons for the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins.

You can debate for days on what matters more, winning the championship of your league and becoming an obscure afterthought or being a constant in the postseason year after year after year.

For the Penguins and Binghamton Senators, neither is a stranger to the postseason. The B-Sens won it all in 2011 were a playoff team last year, facing these same Penguins. Binghamton was swept last year by the Penguins. Will it happen again? Read on.

The Penguins went 3-3-1-1 against the Senators this past season and winless at the Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena up in Southern New York. The B-Sens have home ice in this series so if the Penguins want to have success and get past their closest East Division rival, they must win at least one game on the Southern Tier.

The B-Sens were led in points this year by Mike Hoffman. Hoffman paced the B-Sens with 30 goals this season. However, Hoffman was recalled to Ottawa and hasn’t been seen since. Good news for the Penguins, right? Wrong. Binghamton isn’t led by just one, but by a pack. That pack mentality dooms opponents because if you make a mistake against this team, usually you are fishing that mistake out of the back of your net.

The Binghamton Senators led the AHL in scoring with 3.63 goals per game. The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins led the AHL in defense, limiting opponents to 2.43 goals per game.

It’s the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.

Time to break it all down.

Schedule

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Series “C” (best-of-5)
3-Binghamton Senators vs. 6-W-B/Scranton Penguins
Game 1 – Fri., Apr. 25 – W-B/Scranton at Binghamton, 7:05
Game 2 – Sat., Apr. 26 – W-B/Scranton at Binghamton, 7:05
Game 3 – Wed., Apr. 30 – Binghamton at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
*Game 4 – Fri., May 2 – Binghamton at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
*Game 5 – Mon., May 5 – W-B/Scranton at Binghamton, 7:05

* – if necessary

Forwards

Penguins captain Tom Kostopoulos leads Wilkes-Barre with 47 points. The B-Sens have six players that have more points than Kostopoulos. This should tell the tale as to who has the advantage. Wilkes-Barre’s “X-Factor” is a one-two punch of playmaking center Andrew Ebbett and NHL veteran Chuck Kobasew. Kobasew set the AHL on fire by scoring 11 goals in 12 games after being outcast by Pittsburgh late in the year. Ebbett had a 12 game point streak at the end of the year. You get this duo rolling in the right direction and you are going to win a lot of playoff games.

Advantage: Binghamton. Relying on Kobasew and Ebbett to get hot as a game plan is a recipe for failure. There’s just too much firepower up front for the B-Sens.

Defense

The Penguins have again led the American Hockey League in defense, giving up the fewest goals allowed (185) in the 30 team league. The B-Sens gave up 232 goals and seemed to win games by way of firefights. That doesn’t happen often in the playoffs.

Advantage: Penguins

Goaltending

For the Penguins, it started out with Jeff Deslauriers and Eric Hartzell and ended with Peter Mannino. Hartzell won AHL Goaltender of the Month honors in January. Mannino was named in March. For Binghamton, it started with Nathan Lawson and Andrew Hammond and ended with Hammond playing 48 games. You think that with Hammond, in his first year in the League that he would be over matched, wide and starry eyed. Hammond won 25 games. He also lost 19 of them, probably due in large part to the fact that Binghamton was, again, involved in a 8 or 9 goals scored game. How Hammond holds up in his first postseason run could define this series.

Advantage: Penguins. Mannino hadn’t let in more than two goals since November but was torched by Binghamton this past Saturday. That’s probably not going to happen consistently in this series.

Intangibles

John Hynes and Luke Richardson are going to be behind NHL benches some day. No one gets more out of his players than Richardson. Hynes prepares his group for this moment from the first meetings in September. Advantage Penguins, slightly here. Binghamton was top five in the AHL in power play this year. The Penguins power play has been a joke all season. Wilkes-Barre has slightly better success on the penalty kill than the B-Sens, but Binghamton led the league with 16 shorthanded goals. The Penguins were second with 14. Playoffs are a different animal though, so it’s a push, for now. Special teams is an ever evolving beast so the first team to take advantage will probably have it for this brief five game series.

Social Media Coverage

For the Penguins…

Twitter: @WBSPenguins / @WBSGameDay
Radio: @MikeOBrienWBS
Beat: @CVBombulie
Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins
Instagram: wbspenguins

For the B-Sens…

Twitter: @BSens_Hockey
Radio: @BSensRadio
Beat: @PSBSens
Facebook: /binghamtonsenators
Instagram: bsens_hockey

Prediction

Penguins in five. In order for this to come to fruition, the Penguins must get at least a split this weekend on the Southern Tier. Limiting mistakes and what chances the opposition throws at you with steady defense and goaltending, something that the Penguins have had all season long, and the Penguins are on to the next round.

But they don’t play these games on cyberspace. They play then in brick and mortar buildings filled with rabid fans. Game 1 is tomorrow. The Gameday Setup hits the blog Friday at 3 p.m.

Calder Cup Playoff Preview — Eastern Conference

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Welcome back to the Calder Cup Playoff Previews. Yesterday we looked at the Western Conference. If you missed that, you can click here to go there direct.

Anyway, we are here in familiar territory with teams that the Penguins see on a pretty regular basis. In keeping with what I gave yesterday, I provide capsules on each team that made it this year.

Here we go…

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Albany Devils

Record: 40-23-5-8 // 93 pts., 2nd place Northeast Division (5 seed)

Power Play: 21st // 16.2%

Penalty Kill: 14th // 82.7%

Top 3 Scorers: Joe Whitney 22-31-53 / Kelly Zajac 12-32-44 / Mike Sislo 23-18-41

Overview: Devils hung around and were relevant all season. Defense is what got them here. Defense is what they are going to need in stopping St. John’s, who was the third highest scoring team in the AHL at 3.39 goals per game.

First Round Opponent: St. John’s IceCaps

Record vs. the IceCaps: Did not play.

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 20:1

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Binghamton Senators

Record: 44-24-3-5 // 96 pts., 1st place East Division (3 seed)

Power Play: 5th // 20.7%

Penalty Kill: 23rd // 80.6%

Top 3 Scorers: Mike Hoffman 30-37-67* / Stephane Da Costa 18-40-58 / Cole Schneider 20-34-54

Overview: Binghamton has been the best overall team in the East Division all season. This is a team that has excellent coaching, superb penalty killing (16 SHGF led the AHL) and is the highest scoring team in the AHL. You cannot make a mistake against this team.

First Round Opponent: Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins

Record vs. the Penguins: 5-3-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 8:1

* – Hoffman is on NHL recall

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Manchester Monarchs

Record: 48-19-3-6 // 105 pts., 1st place Atlantic Division (1 seed)

Power Play: 19th // 16.3%

Penalty Kill: 19th // 81.5%

Top 3 Scorers: Jordan Weal 23-47-70 / Linden Vey 14-34-48* / Brian O’Neill 26-21-47

Overview: Monarchs dominated the Atlantic and the Eastern Conference for months. Not an overly flashy team, but consistent on all levels and the results of a 1 seed show. Despite this, some have Manchester as a longshot Cup favorite.

First Round Opponent: Norfolk Admirals

Record vs. the Admirals: 2-2-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 10:1

* – Vey is on NHL recall

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Norfolk Admirals

Record: 40-26-3-7 // 90 pts., 3rd place East Division (8 seed)

Power Play: 22nd // 16%

Penalty Kill: 1st // 88.1%

Top 3 Scorers: Emerson Etem 24-30-54 / Andre Petersson 23-31-54 / Devante Smith-Pelly 27-16-43*

Overview: Admirals were up and down all season but never were a serious threat to the division title. Norfolk is here thanks to superb goaltending by John Gibson and in his absence, Brad Thiessen. Best penalty kill in the AHL too.

First Round Opponent: Manchester Monarchs

Record vs. the Monarchs: 2-2-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 25:1

* – Smith-Pelly is on NHL recall

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Providence Bruins

Record: 40-25-2-9 // 91 pts., 3rd place Atlantic Division (7 seed)

Power Play: 6th // 20.5%

Penalty Kill: 21st // 80.9%

Top 3 Scorers: Alexander Khokhlachev 21-36-57 / Seth Griffith 20-30-50 / Craig Cunningham 25-22-47

Overview: P-Bruins were led by rookies in Khokhlachev and Griffith all season long. Rookie G Malcolm Subban was in the top five amongst AHL goaltending leaders. Bruins are a dark horse whom are looking to atone the 0-3 blown series lead against Wilkes-Barre last year.

First Round Opponent: Springfield Falcons

Record vs. the Falcons: 4-5-0-1

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 20:1

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Springfield Falcons

Record: 47-23-1-5 // 100 pts., 1st place Northeast Division (2 seed)

Power Play: 12th // 18.8%

Penalty Kill: 2nd // 86.9%

Top 3 Scorers: Carter Camper 12-39-51 / Michael Chaput 19-26-45 / Sean Collins 16-25-41

Overview: Springfield couldn’t catch Manchester all season for tops in the East. Goalies Mike McKenna and Jeremy Smith split time in goal for the Falcons. Springfield is the fourth highest scoring team in the league, scoring 3.25 goals per game.

First Round Opponent: Providence Bruins

Record vs. the Bruins: 2-1-1-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 12:1

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St. John’s IceCaps

Record: 46-23-2-5 // 99 pts., 2nd place Atlantic Division (4 seed)

Power Play: 13th // 18.1%

Penalty Kill: 9th // 83.5%

Top 3 Scorers: Jason Jaffray 18-41-59 / Jerome Samson 27-29-56 / Andrew Gordon 23-33-56

Overview: St. John’s is led by future hall of famers in Jaffray, Samson and Gordon. Third highest scoring team in the AHL. Goaltending has been a bit of a carousel for the IceCaps, with four goaltenders appearing in 10 or more games.

First Round Opponent: Albany Devils

Record vs. the Devils: Did not play.

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 14:1

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Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins

Record: 42-26-3-5 // 92 pts., 2nd place East Division (6 seed)

Power Play: 28th // 13.7%

Penalty Kill: 13th // 83.1%

Top 3 Scorers: Tom Kostopoulos 22-25-47 / Nick Drazenovic 13-29-42 / Andrew Ebbett 13-27-40

Overview: Top defensive team in the League is back for the twelfth time in a row looking to ascend to the ultimate summit of a Calder Cup Championship. With things as wide open in the East with no clear cut number one team, Wilkes-Barre is as good as any other team if not better. Tepid power play needs to come alive. Team plays well with a lead vs. trailing.

First Round Opponent: Binghamton Senators

Record vs. the Senators: 3-3-1-1

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 12:1

So there you have it. I return tomorrow with my Series Preview for the Penguins and Senators and break it all down for you as well as offer my prediction.

Calder Cup Playoff Preview — Western Conference

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I don’t know about the weather where you are reading my blog from, but in Wilkes-Barre the last few days it has been sunny and springlike. Yes, Spring is here, and so are playoffs in the AHL!

Today we take a look at the Western Conference. Teams like Chicago, Texas, Grand Rapids and Milwaukee are teams that places like Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton and Providence never see in the regular season.

For teams that I only see from time to time on my AHL Live subscription, below is snapshot of each team participating, their stats, leaders, who they play first round and how they fared. I offer an overview and my odds for the team to win the Calder Cup in June.

Here goes nothing…

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Abbotsford Heat

Record: 43-25-5-3 // 94 pts., 2nd place West Division (5 seed)

Power Play: 4th // 21.9%

Penalty Kill: 27th // 79.4%

Top 3 Scorers: Max Reinhart 21-42-63 / Ben Street 28-32-60 / Corey Locke 10-38-48

Overview: Gritty Heat led the West for a time before Texas went on its white hot run. Faltered then recovered and seems to be peaking at the right time. G Joni Ortio is in the Top 6 for goaltending leaders. Could upset Grand Rapids in a five game series.

First Round Opponent: Grand Rapids Griffins

Record vs. the Griffins: 1-2-0-1

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 25:1

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Chicago Wolves

Record: 41-21-5-5 // 100 pts., 1st place Midwest Division (2 seed)

Power Play: 30th // 12.6%

Penalty Kill: 4th // 85.6%

Top 3 Scorers: Ty Rattie 31-17-48 / Keith Aucoin 11-32-43 / Alexandre Bolduc 18-39-37

Overview: Up and down year for the Wolves, who were constructed on paper in the Fall to totally run away with things. Still managed to win the Midwest on the final weekend. The way the lineup is built with perennial hall of famers like Keith Aucoin and Goaltender of the Year Jake Allen in the lineup, the Wolves are looking like a tough out.

First Round Opponent: Rochester Americans

Record vs. the Americans: 1-1-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 10:1

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Grand Rapids Griffins

Record: 46-26-2-5 // 99 pts., 2nd place Midwest Division (4 seed)

Power Play: 7th // 20.2%

Penalty Kill: 5th // 85.6%

Top 3 Scorers: Teemu Pulkkinen 31-28-59 / Adam Almquist 4-49-53 / Cory Emmerton 16-30-46

Overview: Defending Champion Griffins looking to repeat this year having missed out on Midwest crown on the final day of regular season to the Chicago Wolves. But don’t let that fool you. The Griffins have been a top five team all season long. They know what it takes to win a championship.

First Round Opponent: Abbotsford Heat

Record vs. the Heat: 3-1-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 5:1

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Milwaukee Admirals

Record: 39-24-6-7 // 91 pts., 3rd place Midwest Division (6 seed)

Power Play: 14th // 17.5%

Penalty Kill: 7th // 83.8%

Top 3 Scorers: Miikka Salomaki 20-30-50 / Taylor Beck 17-32-49 / Austin Watson 22-24-46

Overview: Admirals never really were a threat to overtake division rivals Chicago and Grand Rapids, but that didn’t stop them from making their 12th consecutive playoff appearance.

First Round Opponent: Toronto Marlies

Record vs. the Marlies: 2-0-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 30:1

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Oklahoma City Barons

Record: 36-29-2-9 // 83 pts., 3rd place West Division (8 seed)

Power Play: 3rd // 22.1%

Penalty Kill: 28th // 78.9%

Top 3 Scorers: Roman Horak 23-32-55 / Anton Lander 18-34-52 / Brad Hunt 11-39-50

Overview: Barons surged past Charlotte, Rockford and Utica in the seasons closing weeks to claim the eighth and final playoff spot. The Barons are the only playoff team that has four or more wins against the Texas Stars this season.

First Round Opponent: Texas Stars

Record vs. the Stars: 4-6-2-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 50:1

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Rochester Americans

Record: 37-28-6-5 // 85 pts., 2nd place North Division (7 seed)

Power Play: 10th // 19.8%

Penalty Kill: 12th // 83.1%

Top 3 Scorers: Phil Varone 18-43-61 / Luke Adam 29-20-49 / Nick Deslauriers 19-23-42

Overview: Amerks looked for a time like they weren’t going to make playoffs, having lost nine in a row in March but managed to turn things around with a five game win streak and got in as a 7 seed.

First Round Opponent: Chicago Wolves

Record vs. the Wolves: 1-1-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 45:1

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Texas Stars

Record: 48-18-3-7 // 106 pts., 1st place West Division (1 seed)

Power Play: 1st // 25.3%

Penalty Kill: 3rd // 86.4%

Top 3 Scorers: Travis Morin 32-56-88 / Curtis McKenzie 27-38-65 / Colton Sceviour 32-31-63

Overview: The Stars tore through the regular season and won the Macgregror Kilpatrick Trophy. They have the league MVP in Travis Morin, they have the best power play in the league converting at over 25% and are top three on the penalty kill. Texas is the second highest scoring team in the league, barely being edged by Binghamton back East. This team is a powerhouse and the odds on lock for the Calder Cup in June.

First Round Opponent: Oklahoma City Barons

Record vs. the Barons: 8-3-1-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 3:1

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Toronto Marlies

Record: 45-25-2-4 // 96 pts., 1st place North Division (3 seed)

Power Play: 9th // 19.9%

Penalty Kill: 11th // 83.2%

Top 3 Scorers: T.J. Brennan 25-47-72 / Spencer Abbott 17-52-69 / Greg McKegg 19-28-47

Overview: Marlies have been the class of the North Division for years now. Very balanced attack can roll line after line at opponents and wear them down. A Division winner can’t be considered a dark horse to win it all, can it?

First Round Opponent: Milwaukee Admirals

Record vs. the Admirals: 2-0-0-0

Odds to win the Calder Cup: 8:1

So there you have it. Not bad for an East Division blogger that never sees half these teams in person, eh?. Tomorrow we roll with the Eastern Conference Playoff Previews.

Week 29 AHL Power Rankings

So another season is in the books in the American Hockey League. For a concept I cooked up on my couch in October, these 29 weeks of putting out Power Rankings have been a success.

You’ll notice this week that the Top 16 teams in this weeks Rankings are all playoff teams. You’ll also notice that all the division winners are in the Top 6. I felt it fitting that it be this way, with this being the final week of the Rankings.

I do plan on bringing these back for 2014-15 and appreciate everyone reading, commenting and spreading the word of these Rankings all throughout the internets.

No change at the top, as the Regular Season Champion Texas Stars reign supreme in this weeks Rankings. The Chicago Wolves, err, the Midwest Division Champion Chicago Wolves, are you biggest gainers this week, up 5 spots to 4th.

Biggest fall this week belong to the Hershey Bears, who will not be competing for the Calder Cup this Spring for the first time since 2005-06. The Bears were eliminated Friday.

You should know the drill by now. Click through the jump if you didn’t link in anywhere else direct.

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