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As sure as the sun coming up tomorrow, the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins are in the second round of the Calder Cup Playoffs. For 13 of the 14 seasons that the Penguins have qualified for the postseason, Wilkes-Barre has been a mainstay in the second round.

In 2016, it is their biggest rival standing across from them in the yard that leads out onto the street that takes you to the Conference Finals.

It’s the Hershey Bears, the Atlantic Division winners, attendance leaders and 11 time Calder Cup Champions. The Bears are led by AHL MVP and scoring leader Chris Bourque and a flock of impressive rookies in Riley Barber, Travis Boyd and Jakub Vrana. They have experience on the blueline and in goal.

Which one of these two postseason behemoths makes it out of the yard alive?

Let’s break it down.

Schedule

Atlantic Division Finals – Series “I” (best-of-7)
A1-Hershey Bears vs. A3-Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 
Game 1 – Wed., May 4 – W-B/Scranton at Hershey, 7:00
Game 2 – Fri., May 6 – W-B/Scranton at Hershey, 7:00
Game 3 – Sat., May 7 – Hershey at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
Game 4 – Mon., May 9 – Hershey at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
*Game 5 – Wed., May 11 – W-B/Scranton at Hershey, 7:00
*Game 6 – Fri., May 13 – Hershey at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
*Game 7 – Sun., May 15 – W-B/Scranton at Hershey, 5:00

* – if necessary

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Forwards

The Bears offense was carried this season by AHL MVP and future Hall of Famer Chris Bourque. Of the 259 goals scored by the Bears in 2015-16, Bourque figured into 30.8% of them. Take Penguins forward Carter Rowney, a player that has played 74 games for Wilkes-Barre and run that same equation, and you get 24.3%.

Beyond Bourque, the aforementioned rookies in Barber, Boyd and Vrana all finished top six for the Bears in scoring.

Taking a look at the Penguins, Dustin Jeffrey technically leads Wilkes-Barre with 64 points, but 46 of those points were with Springfield before he was moved at the trade deadline. Jeffrey has been nearly a point a game player for the Pens since his return. Getting down to the fifth forward on the Penguins point board that has played the entire season for Wilkes-Barre finds Kael Mouillierat and his 45 points. Fifth place forward for the Bears in scoring? Sean Collins with 39 points.

Advantage: I am tempted to say push, but because of the presence of Chris Bourque, this has to go to Hershey.

Defensemen

The Penguins only fished 203 opposition goals out of their nets this season while the Bears were scored on 220 times. Rookie Madison Bowey led the Bears defensive corps with a +22 plus / minus analytic. Next is Aaron Ness at a +12 and Christian Djoos at a +7 and Erik Burgdoerfer at a +10.

But take all that information carefully. The Bears offense in the regular season was a juggernaut.

Looking at the Penguins defense, one that shut down leading goal scorer Frank Vatrano and the high powered Providence Bruins offense in the first round, going back to what I said in the preview of the Pens / P-Bruins a few weeks ago, where I picked Wilkes-Barre on the advantage over Providence, I think the same logic applies.

Advantage: Wilkes-Barre. Stopping, or slowing down Bourque while maintaining the same offensive pace that was displayed in the first round with Providence is going to be pivotal for the Penguins in the hopes of advancing to the Conference Finals. If Bourque starts to catch fire, it will be over for the Penguins. I don’t think that this corps as it is constructed allows that to happen.

Goaltending

It’s still a mystery who the Game 1 starter will be for Wilkes-Barre tomorrow in Hershey. Will it be first round hero Casey DeSmith or will it be the established Tristan Jarry?

Jarry against the Bears in regular season: 5 games played, 3-2 record, 3.57 GAA and a .863 SV%.

DeSmith in postseason: 3 games, perfect record, 2.45 GAA and a .930 SV% including a franchise record 59 in the close out game against Providence in Game 3.

Hershey will ride with Justin Peters in Game 1. He shutout the Pirates in Game 4 and only allowed one goal in the deciding Game 5.

But Peters numbers against Wilkes-Barre are abhorrent. 2-2-1 record, 3.45 GAA and a .884 SV%. Back up Dan Ellis’ numbers aren’t that much better, 3-3 record with a 2.66 GAA and a .883 SV%.

Advantage: Penguins. Just the unknown of Casey DeSmith with the fact that Tristan Jarry is waiting in the wings against whatever Hershey wants to trot out in goal gives the Penguins the advantage in this category.

Intangibles

The loser of the Pittsburgh / Washington series is going to enrich the AHL roster of their affiliate. That is something to keep an eye on. Game 7 of that series if it gets there is Thursday, May 12. Depending on how quickly the losing team gets exit interviews done and breaks for the summer, reinforcements can make an impact as early as Game 6 of this series, if it gets there.

Edit: Washington wouldn’t send anyone down to Hershey. Must be nice to have a healthy franchise. Pittsburgh can only send Matt Murray, Derrick Pouliot, Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust, Scott Wilson and Oskar Sundqvist. Of those six, the most likely to be sent back would be Sundqvist and Pouliot. I suspect that Matt Murray will not be let out of the sight of the Pittsburgh brass. Wilson and Rust are banged up and Sheary may get a few days to recover before being assigned and eligible in a future series. In sum, reinforcements from the NHL are not that big of an intangible.

Special teams wise, the Penguins were 7th overall in the AHL while the Bears were an uncharacteristic 18th on the man advantage in the regular season. These teams were dead even in penalty killing, with the Penguins and Bears filing in 16th and 17th respectively. In the postseason, both teams gave up one power play goal against and both have scored two on the man advantage. Here is a push.

Based off of the fact that Clark Donatelli spent his whole week last week scouting the Bears and Pirates in the first round of the playoffs and the fact that he and Hershey head coach Troy Mann are so familiar with one another’s teams and coaching styles, I can’t see one coach outfoxing the other. It may come down to home ice and last change. Push here too.

Social Media Coverage

For the Penguins…

Twitter: @WBSPenguins / @WBSGameDay
Radio: @MikeOBrienWBS / @_NickHart
Beat: @CVSethLakso and @TLTomVenesky
Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins
Instagram: wbspenguins

For the Bears…

Twitter: @TheHersheyBears
Radio: @ScottStuccio
Beat: It’s a shame that a team as storied as the Bears doesn’t have a dedicated beat writer anymore.
Facebook: /TheHersheyBears
Instagram: thehersheybears

Prediction

Penguins in six. If this prophecy is to come to fruition, then Wilkes-Barre will need to use that extra week of rest and study on the Bears and steal the first two games in Hershey. Or, at least get it back to Wilkes-Barre split 1-1, then take the next two at home. Penguins will make Peters look pedestrian, will shut down Bourque and company and rookies Daniel Sprong and Jake Guentzel will continue to shine and exceed expectations and the Penguins advance to the Conference Finals to take on the winner of Toronto / Albany.

Or, like last round, I could be totally wrong and Chris Bourque scores the game winner in double overtime in Game 7 and the Bears win that game 1-0 and Justin Peters is given the keys to Hersheypark and Chocolate World.

Gameday setup for Game 1 hits the blog Wednesday at 3.

There are eight teams left in the Calder Cup Finals. These division previews look like they are going to be classic battles and some could go the distance.

Will they?

This is my stab at predicting a winner. I was 5-3 last round, and picked three of those five series perfectly, so let’s give it a go again!

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   Ontario (P1) vs. San Diego (P2)   
Pacific Division Final

How the Reign got here: Dispatched the San Jose Barracuda in four games, San Jose gave the Reign a fight, but Ontario was too good to lose in even a five game series.

How the Gulls got here: In a complete role reversal from the regular season, it was the Gulls that got the better of the Texas Stars. San Diego dominated special teams and that is enough to get by an opponent in the short five game series.

How they matchup: They met 12 times with San Diego going 8-4 over the Reign with the Gulls winning once in overtime and once in a shootout.

Key player so far for Ontario: Nic Dowd. Four points (2-2-4) in four games for Dowd. Honorable mention to Peter Budaj, the reigning Goaltender of the Year.

Key player so far for San Diego: Chris Mueller. Anything you can do, Nic Dowd, I can do better. 2-3-5 in four games, including a power play goal and an assist.

Prediction: Ontario in six. These are the Calder Cup Champions from last year who have experience in these big moments. Ontario’s big game background is enough to see them through to the Conference Finals.

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   Lake Erie (C2) vs. Grand Rapids (C4)   
Central Division Finals

How the Monsters got here: A sweep of the Rockford IceHogs. IceHogs didn’t put up much of a fight and Lake Erie breezed through.

How the Griffins got here: Swept the Central Division Champion Milwaukee Admirals. The streaky Griffins are on an uptick right now and that could spell bad things for the Monsters.

How they matchup: Met 12 times. Grand Rapids has the slight edge (7-4-0-1) to Lake Erie (5-3-3-1) in the head to head, and the stats on paper look dead even.

Key player so far for Lake Erie: Joonas Korpisalo. The Monsters goaltender is 3-0 with a 2.00 GAA and a .924 SV% so far in the series.

Key player so far for Grand Rapids: Martin Frk. 1-3-4 in four games so far for the Czech.

Prediction: Grand Rapids in seven. This has the makings of a roller coaster series between these two. Grand Rapids offense trumps Lake Erie’s inexperience and it’s the Griffins moving on.

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   Toronto (N1) vs. Albany (N2)   
North Division Finals

How the Marlies got here: Swept the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in three games. Came back from 4-1 down in Game 3 to win 6-4.

How the Devils got here: Beat Utica in four games. But for one slip up in overtime in Game 3 in Utica, Albany coasted.

How they matchup: They met six times. Toronto won two in overtime. Albany kept the Marlies honest all season at least on paper, but the Marlies were built in the beginning to be a juggernaut.

Key player so far for Toronto: Connor Carrick. Came over from the Washington organization and has flourished. His seven points far and away leads the Marlies.

Key player so far for Albany: Scott Wedgewood. Albany’s “backup” boasts a minuscule 1.93 GAA and a .922 SV%.

Prediction: One of two things will happen in this series. Toronto wins in a sweep or five games or Albany drags this to seven. I think Albany is too good to get swept but Toronto is too deep to lose in a Division Final. Toronto in seven.

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   Hershey (A1) vs. Wilkes-Barre (A3)   
Atlantic Division Finals

How the Penguins got here: Wilkes-Barre swept Providence in three games, all in overtime. Providence’s inexperience in pivotal moments was the key to their doom. An upset, for sure.

How the Bears got here: Beat Portland in five games. After losing in triple overtime in Game 3, Justin Peters only allowed one goal the rest of the way. Portland’s historical inability to close out an opponent on the brink cost them again.

How they match up: About as even as you can get between two teams. Penguins were 6-5-0-1 and the Bears were 6-5-1-0 in the head to head series between the two teams. Justin Peters, the hero against the Pirates this postseason, is 2-2-1 with a 3.45 GAA and a .884 SV% against Wilkes-Barre.

Key Player so far for Wilkes-Barre: Jake Guenztel. The rookie has  7 points in three games plus the series clinching goal for the Penguins over the Bruins.

Key Player so far for Hershey: Jakub Vrana. The Bears rookie leads the team in points this postseason.

Prediction: I’ll give it to you Tuesday.

Note: The Hershey Bears advance to the Atlantic Division Finals to take on the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins which begins Wednesday in Hershey. In case you missed the blog earlier, here are words and a schedule.

With the Divisional Semifinals over and the Division Finals set, it’s time for us to see how wrong I was in my first round predictions.

Wilkes-Barre / Providence

What I said: “Providence in four. Providence’s high powered offense overmatches the Penguins disarray of flavor of the week goaltending and Wilkes-Barre is blown away in four games.”

What actually happened: The exact opposite. The Penguins rode rookie Casey DeSmith over Tristan Jarry and he delivered, including a franchise high 59 saves in the series clincher. Providence’s offense never came to life, Wilkes-Barre swept in three games.

Lake Erie / Rockford

What I said: “Lake Erie in five. Monsters methodical, come at you from all sides tactics is enough to dismiss Rockford in the short five game series.”

What actually happened: Monsters advanced as expected, but it only took three games. Really expected Rockford, who came into the series and out of the regular season on a three game winning streak, to put up more of a fight. They didn’t.

Toronto / Bridgeport

What I said: “Toronto in three. Marlies will make this round easy.”

What actually happened: The blind squirrel found his nut. I was right. The Marlies swept the Sound Tigers easily.

Milwaukee / Grand Rapids

What I said: “Milwaukee in five. One of two series out West that goes the distance.”

What actually happened: Not only did I get the pick wrong, the Griffins, who came into the postseason losing five straight, sweep away the Central Division Champions in three games.

Albany / Utica

What I said: “Albany in four. Comets steal a game early, but the Devils correct, lock down and don’t let go.”

What actually happened: I got this one right too. Comets are too good to get swept, used home ice in Game 3 to steal a game in overtime but their Devils adjusted and blew the Comets out in Game 4 and it wasn’t close.

San Diego / Texas

What I said: Stars in four. San Diego steals one, probably in overtime, but the matchup heavily favors the Stars to advance.

What actually happened: The reverse, or Gulls in four. Take everything out of what you saw in the regular season between these two and toss it. San Diego dominated special teams and got an offensive shot in the arm when parent Anaheim lost Game 7 of their series with Nashville.

Ontario / San Jose

What I said: Ontario in three. It won’t be pretty for San Jose.

What actually happened: Barracuda took Game 2 but fell in four games to the Reign. If not for anything, San Jose gave the Reign a fight, which may have me leaning more in San Diego’s favor in the Pacific Division Finals.

Hershey / Portland

What I said: Bears in five. Of all the series in the East, this one goes the distance.

What actually happened: Bang biscuit. Got this one right too. Portland went up 2-1 in the series, but Justin Peters locked down and only allowed one goal the rest of the series. Portland’s historic inability to close a series continues to haunt them.

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5-3 in picks, got the Hershey, Albany and Toronto series perfect.

Monday, I get to do it all again with the Division Final Previews.