Chirps from Center Ice

A fan blog about the AHL's Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins

Friday In Betweens 4/22

Comments Off on Friday In Betweens 4/22 Posted by on April 22, 2016

In between Games 2 and 3 in this best of five series with the Providence Bruins and a travel day for both teams, here’s some stuff to chew on as we take today to relax and recoil for what could be a big day Saturday.

First, I updated my postseason stat board page. As you would expect, it looks great for the Penguins and awful for the Bruins. Some bullet points…

– The defensive pairing of Chris Casto and Chris Breen are a combined -10 between them and a -5 each. They have been on the ice for 5 of the 7 Wilkes-Barre goals scored in the series.

– Barry Goers and Ryan Parent are on the opposite end of that spectrum. Neither have been on the ice for a Bruins goal and are +4 between them and +2 each.

– The big names like Khokhalchev, Czarnik and Vatrano have been bottled up. But for that goal that bounced in off of Casey DeSmith’s skate in the third period in Game 2, a large part of what got the Bruins to second in the Bruins to second in the division has been quiet. Take off the two shorthanded goals scored and it’s utter dominance by the Penguins.

Providence bussed back home overnight and didn’t get in until 3:30 Friday morning and didn’t practice today. Mark Divver from The Providence Journal spoke with Bruce Cassidy and tweeted some of Cassidy’s thoughts Friday afternoon…

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Everything that Divver said there is true. The Penguins normally have a hard time getting to the front of the net because they either can’t get there or it isn’t part of the gameplan. The Rowney OT winner in Game 1 was in front of the Bruins net. The Kostopoulos goal in Game 2 that tied it at two was scored in the same spot as Rowney’s. Countless other times in the series so far pressing Smith into a big save that sometimes he cannot make. And blocking shots is something that is burned into the heads of the Penguins at camp on Coal Street in September. It’s a calling card, and a card that has them up 2-0 in a series against a dangerous opponent.

Seth had six thoughts after Game 2. He hit on all the salient points. Check it out.

Mike O’Brien Friday went a bit deeper with his blog piece for Skating on the Susquehanna. Sprong’s impact has been immediate, the Penguins are beating the Providence Bruins up and The Legend of Casey DeSmith is growing.

Game 3 goes off Saturday at 7:05 from Providence. The Gameday setup hits the blog at 3 in the afternoon Saturday.

Let’s Go Pens!

The AHL, WBS

Damn, Daniel! — Pens WIN 4-3 (OT)

Comments Off on Damn, Daniel! — Pens WIN 4-3 (OT) Posted by on April 21, 2016

   button_adk200       vs.       WBS

  3                                           4

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Daniel Sprong is a highly touted prospect that was mismanaged in Pittsburgh earlier in the season and sent to his junior team. It’s been an up an down year and no doubt an emotional roller coaster ride for the 19 year old. No idea what is going though is head when his junior team, Charlottetown, is dismissed from the QMJHL playoffs and he heads to Wilkes-Barre and suits up for the Penguins in the span of about 48 hours.

Score goals. Big goals.

Two goals from Sprong, one the overtime game winner, and the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins have a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Providence Bruins in the best of five series as the series shifts to Providence Saturday night with a 4-3 overtime win Thursday night in Wilkes-Barre.

The footnote in the game and the series is going to be what is going on in goal for the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins. Casey DeSmith led the team out for warmups and started and won his second straight game. Tristan Jarry was the backup again after initially being pegged to be the Game 2 starter.

You ride the hot hand if you are Clark Donatelli. The worst the Penguins could have done was a 1-1 split heading to Providence. If things fell apart for DeSmith, Jarry is right there.

Lines were…

Kael Mouillierat – Dustin Jeffrey – Dominik Simon
Jake Guentzel – Carter Rowney – Tom Kostopoulos
Mattias Plachta – J-S Dea – Josh Archibald
Tom Sestito – Teddy Blueger – Daniel Sprong

Niclas Andersen – Steve Oleksy
Ryan Parent – Barry Goers
Tim Erixon – Will O’Neill

Casey DeSmith – Tristan Jarry

Lineup Notes: There weren’t any. Patrick McGrath took warmups but was scratched.

First Period: Bad luck bit the Penguins.

They got the first power play of the game early but a Daniel Sprong turnover to Noel Acciari led to this…

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…and the Bruins were up 1-0 on another shorthanded goal.

But the Penguins continued to pressure and hit the Bruins forwards at every opportunity. Pens couldn’t do anything with a full power play. It was looking like it was going to be 1-0 Bruins after one but then this happened…

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Will O’Neill’s stick snaps in two on a clear and the puck sat there for Chris Casto to collect and score to make it 2-0 Bruins.

Providence just robbed the hen house with the wolf watching. Or something.

Second Period: But then the wolf woke up. And he was angry.

Penguins killed off a carryover 5×3 to start the period. Then they got one back when Tim Erixon unleashed a slapshot from the blue line.

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Then Daniel Sprong atoned for his first period turnover and tied the game. Nice centering pass by Kael Mouillierat, Jeremy Smith didn’t know what hit him.

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Shots were 8-3 Pens through half way of the second period. Every time Providence touched to puck, there was a Penguin player there ready to lower the boom. I counted one Providence shift where they turned the puck over three times on account of hits by the Penguins.

The offense wasn’t finished. The opposite of what happened last night in overtime happened when Tom Kostopoulos finished off this service by Carter Rowney.

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I called it a meat grinder period by Wilkes-Barre with the home team playing the role of butchers and the Bruins playing the role of ground chuck. It was one of the most aggressive periods played by the Penguins all season and arguably the best period played under Clark Donatelli’s tutelage thus far.

Third Period: Providence didn’t take long to even the score at three. Frank Vatrano.

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Providence needed to score a dirty goal and got one. Puck may have deflected off of DeSmith’s skate and in but nonetheless, the Bruins showed life.

Pens did a good job of killing a Bruins power play. Hitting picked up. Some borderline illegal, but it’s playoffs.

Nothing was decided. It was off to…

Overtime: DeSmith made a pad stop and the Bruins were hunting to finish the game. Then Nic Anderson took a puck over the glass delay of game penalty. Bruins to the power play with fresh ice. The Penguins appeared to have scored when Kael Mouillierat beat Jeremy Smith to a puck. Mouillierat knocked Smith over and the Penguins scored on the empty net. Referee Keith Kaval initially signaled goal but consulted with the linesmen and trailing referee Kendrick Nicholson and rightly washed the goal out on account of contact with Smith.

The Penguins killed the penalty.

Sprong ended it shortly there after…

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That one counted.

The Penguins have played nearly perfect hockey so far this postseason. They have brought it to the Providence Bruins and the Bruins have not responded at all, other than to make the Penguins work that much harder to win. The Penguins have, the Bruins haven’t. The Penguins have all the momentum now. The Bruins are one or two sequences away now from their season being over.

Three Stars: 3) Carter Rowney (assist, -1) 2) Tom Kostopoulos (goal, -1) and 1) Daniel Sprong (two goals, +1)

Video highlights…

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The series now shifts to Providence for Game 3 at 7:05. I will probably bring back my postseason charts for Friday with analysis of anything that the data I chart gives me. I may make a blog post out of it. I don’t know yet. Stay tuned.

Bruins in 4? Huh. What idiot said that.

Oh, wait.

Let’s Go Pens!

Postgamer

Atlantic Division Semifinal Game 2: Providence Bruins (WBS leads 1-0)

Comments Off on Atlantic Division Semifinal Game 2: Providence Bruins (WBS leads 1-0) Posted by on April 21, 2016

vs.     15PRO

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Atlantic Division Semifinal — Game 2

AHL Game: B2

Who: Providence Bruins

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza

When: 7:05 p.m.

Series: WBS leads 1-0 (Best of Five)

Media Kit

 

Last Game: Last night in Game 1 in Wilkes-Barre, the Pens won in overtime 3-2. Carter Rowney scored at 1:09 of the overtime period to give the Penguins the win and the 1-0 series lead. He also added an assist.

What to watch for: An all out Providence offensive assault. The Penguins played like the better team last night, playing well with the lead for long stretches yesterday. They got beat on a miscommunication for the first goal against and shorthanded for their second. Other than that, the only reason the Penguins didn’t win in regulation was because they didn’t score five goals. Expect Providence to bring it tonight in a big way. Pens better be ready.

Referee(s): Kendrick Nicholson / Keith Kaval

Linesmen: Tom George / Bob Pomento

Twitter: @wbspenguins / @WBSGameDay / @AHLBruins

Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins // /providencebruins

Instagram: wbspenguins / ahlbruins

Beat Writers: @CVBombulie / @TLTomVenesky // @MarkDivver

Broadcasters: For WBS: Mike O’Brien @MikeOBrienWBS / For PRO: I don’t know the guys name or if he is on Twitter.

Fan Bloggers: @nafsnep

Radio: For WBS: WILK NewsRadio / For Providence: WNRI 1380 AM

Television: AHL Live

When is Game 3?: Saturday night in Providence at 7:05

Gameday

Carter’s Got Peanuts — Pens WIN 3-2 (OT)

Comments Off on Carter’s Got Peanuts — Pens WIN 3-2 (OT) Posted by on April 20, 2016

   button_adk200       vs.       WBS

  2                                           3

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Regular season accomplishments are fine and all, but when the playoffs start, all of the regular season accomplishments, records and what have you don’t mean a thing. Playoffs are their own animal.

For the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins, they started the animal in the eye tonight, and it blinked.

A Carter Rowney overtime goal at 1:09 is enough to give the Penguins a 1-0 series lead and a 3-2 overtime win tonight.

The Penguins still need to win at least a game in Providence. Games 3 and 4 are there and if there is a Game 5 it is in Rhode Island as well.

Even if the Penguins would have lost this game tonight, they were only one or two adjustments away from completely turning the series around. Now that they have the series lead, they can really focus on putting the Bruins down for good when the series restarts for Game 2 Thursday.

It was Casey DeSmith vs. Jeremy Smith tonight in goal.

Lines were…

Kael Mouillierat – Dustin Jeffrey – Dominik Simon
Jake Guentzel – Carter Rowney – Tom Kostopoulos
Mattias Plachta – J-S Dea – Josh Archibald
Tom Sestito – Teddy Blueger – Daniel Sprong

Niclas Andersen – Steve Oleksy
Ryan Parent – Barry Goers
Tim Erixon – Will O’Neill

Casey DeSmith – Tristan Jarry

Lineup Notes: Patrick McGrath took warmups but was scratched. Tristan Jarry was reassigned by Pittsburgh in the morning and was the backup tonight and is pegged as the Game 2 starter.

First Period: Pens set the tone early getting the first four shots of the period. Providence quickly caught up on the shot board but DeSmith was up to the challenge. Much like Saturday the physicality and hitting was dialed up with the Pens dishing out the majority of the blows.

Carter Rowney won a face off to Will O’Neill. O’Neill put it towards goal and Jake Guentzel got a stick on it and it was 1-0 Pens.

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It was the perfect reward for the Penguins who matched Providence’s speed. DeSmith played a solid 20 minutes with some tough saves.

Question was, could the intensity be sustained?

Second Period: The second period started out very well for the Penguins. :18 in, Dustin Jeffrey knocked one past Jeremy Smith to double the Penguins lead.

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Casey DeSmith continued his sorcery in net denying Max Talbot twice in quick fashion.

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But Providence is too stacked of a team to go one, no less two periods without scoring. The Pens were caught in a miscommunication and Seth Griffith knocked one in far post for an easy tap in and the Bruins were dangerously back within one.

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The final five minutes were crucial here for the Penguins to either re-establish the two goal lead or take it to the break as it was and not get scored on again. They escaped up 2-1 heading into the…

Third Period: Penguins played well, but got bit on a shorthanded goal by Colby Cave that tied the game at two:

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The Bruins were trying to slow the game down and it worked. They were looking for their spot and found it when Cave scored shorthanded. Again, the Pens played well, but could not muster another one past Smith and it was heading to…

Overtime: Carter Rowney.

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Pens chipped a puck in deep. Tom Kostopoulos got to it, centered to Rowmey who knocked it in. I don’t think Providence touched the puck once in the overtime only just to knock it out of their zone.

Three Stars: 3) Casey DeSmith (31 saves on 33 shots) 2) Dustin Jeffrey (goal, even) 1) Carter Rowney (overtime game winning goal, assist, +1)

Video highlights….

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I do not think that there is any doubt that Clark Donatelli goes to Tristan Jarry for Game 2. Casey DeSmith did what he was supposed to do, stop pucks while the starting guy was on recall to Pittsburgh. He did a fine job of it and if Jarry were to fall ill or get recalled back to Pittsburgh at some point down the line I have the full faith in his abilities. But Pittsburgh wants Jarry to get the playoff experience and that is what they will get.

Expect Providence’s best Thursday. They did not play a great overall game and at times were frustrated by the Penguins physicality. Expect them to crank it up looking to even the series up heading back to Rhode Island Saturday for Game 3.

Gameday for Game 2 hits the blog Thursday at 3.

Let’s Go Pens!

Postgamer

Atlantic Division Semifinal Game 1: Providence Bruins

Comments Off on Atlantic Division Semifinal Game 1: Providence Bruins Posted by on April 20, 2016

vs.     15PRO

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Atlantic Division Semifinal — Game 1

AHL Game: B1

Who: Providence Bruins

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza

When: 7:05 p.m.

Series: Tied 0-0 (Best of Five)

Media Kit

Season Series: Oct. 9: WBS 2 @ PRO 1 (OT) — Nov. 27: PRO 0 @ WBS 3 — Jan. 24: WBS 2 @ PRO 5 — Feb. 28: WBS 2 @ PRO 3 — Mar 26: PRO 5 @ WBS 0 — Apr. 16: PRO 3 @ WBS 1

Top four scorers for the Penguins vs. the Bruins: 1. Dustin Jeffrey (11 GP*, 0-8-8, -5) – 2. Kael Mouillierat (6 GP, 1-3-4, -1) – 3. Carter Rowney (6 GP, 2-1-3, -1) – 4. Dominik Simon (6 GP, 2-1-3, -1)

Top four scorers for the Bruins vs. the Penguins: 1. Seth Griffith (5 GP, 3-3-6, +4) – 2. Colby Cave (6 GP, 2-3-5, +4) – 3. Frank Vatrano (4 GP, 3-1-4, +2) – 4. Max Talbot (2 GP, 2-2-4, +3)

What to watch for: Penguins defense vs. Providence’s offense. One is going to win here tonight and that will decide this game and probably the series. The Penguins must contain the high potent Providence offense if they want to start this series the right way.

Referee(s): Kendrick Nicholson / Peter MacDougall

Linesmen: Francois Dussureault / Jud Ritter

Twitter: @wbspenguins / @WBSGameDay / @AHLBruins

Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins // /providencebruins

Instagram: wbspenguins / ahlbruins

Beat Writers: @CVBombulie / @TLTomVenesky // @MarkDivver

Broadcasters: For WBS: Mike O’Brien @MikeOBrienWBS / For PRO: I don’t know the guys name or if he is on Twitter.

Fan Bloggers: @nafsnep

Radio: For WBS: WILK NewsRadio / For Providence: WNRI 1380 AM

Television: AHL Live

When is Game 2?: Thursday night, tomorrow, in Wilkes-Barre at 7:05

* – Dustin Jeffrey’s numbers agains the Bruins include his 9 games played with the Springfield Falcons

Gameday

Penguins / P-Bruins Series Preview

1 Comment Posted by on April 19, 2016

wbs14_200          cc16_200          15PRO

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The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins are the current leaders in the American Hockey League for most consecutive seasons (14) where they have qualified for the Calder Cup Playoffs. It is a remarkable feat for a modern day minor league team in a 30 team league that is so consistent in qualifying for a postseason berth giving itself the chance at the ultimate prize for any hockey player, coach, front office employee or fan. That is a championship trophy and celebration when it is all said and done that all the hard work of the season from preseason camp in September, to weekend three in threes, to grueling travel have led to this very moment where you can say that you are the champion.

For the Penguins, that day will come. Is this the year?

If the Providence Bruins have anything to say about it, the answer is no.

But let’s break it all down anyway.

Schedule

Atlantic Division Semifinals – Series “B” (best-of-5)
A2-Providence Bruins vs. A3-Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
Game 1 – Wed., Apr. 20 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
Game 2 – Thu., Apr. 21 – Providence at W-B/Scranton, 7:05
Game 3 – Sat., Apr. 23 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05
*Game 4 – Mon., Apr. 25 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05
*Game 5 – Tue., Apr. 26 – W-B/Scranton at Providence, 7:05

* – if necessary

Forwards

The Providence Bruins have a very talented forward corps that starts with Seth Griffith (24-53-77) and is followed by Alexander Khokhlachev (23-45-68) and Austin Czarnik (20-41-61) and ends with Frank Vatrano (36-19-55) Czarnik and Vatrano are probably pegged for full time NHL work with parent Boston next season. This rookie duo have a combined 56 goals scored among them, just seven shy of the Penguins Dustin Jeffrey (20) Carter Rowney (24) and Tom Kostopoulos (19) combined. Vatrano took home Co-Rookie of the Year honors and in 36 games played for the Bruins, has 36 goals.

The Penguins offense heavily relied upon the aforementioned Jeffrey, Rowney and Kostopoulos. Dominik Simon, Kael Mouillierat and J-S Dea are the other three active Penguins who have 20 or more goals scored for Wilkes-Barre this season.

Advantage: Providence. I didn’t even mention Alexander Khokhlachev’s name after the first sentence. The Penguins have one, maybe two, scoring threats on the ice at any time. Providence can mix and match and have a threat to score every second of this series.

Defensemen

Since there are not analytics at this level, I am forced to strictly rely on the dreaded +/- category. In this, Providence’s defense corps of Matt Irwin (+1) Chris Casto (even) Tommy Cross (+5) and Ben Youds (+9) are a combined +15, while Wilkes-Barre’s Tim Erixon alone is a +14. Even shutdown defenseman Steve Oleksy is a +8.

Tracking players on ice when there is a goal scored, I maintained a chart that I updated weekly for all Penguins players. Tim Erixon leads active Penguin defensemen with a 61.62% GF% and offensive defenseman Will O’Neill is next on the list with a 60.39% GF%. O’Neill was on the ice 93 times when the Penguins scored a goal, or 40.4% of the time when you take into account that the Penguins scored a total combined 230 goals in the 2015-16 campaign.

Advantage: Penguins, strictly based off of numbers only.

Goaltending

The Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins goaltending situation has been in a state of flux ever since Matt Murray was called up to Pittsburgh in late February to back up Marc-Andre Fleury. Rookie goaltender Tristan Jarry was handed the reins and started nearly every game in March until being recalled when Matt Murray was injured in the final regular season game the Pittsburgh Penguins played in Philadelphia against the Flyers.

To make matters even worse, Casey DeSmith, whom the Penguins signed to a PTO when Jarry went up to Pittsburgh, was apparently injured in Wilkes-Barre’s final regular season game against Hershey with an apparent lower body injury and is day to day. Head Coach Clark Donatelli hasn’t named a starter for Game 1 Wednesday but it could be Sean Maguire, a rookie out of Boston University that joined the Penguins after his college season ended or it could be Brian Foster, currently with the Wheeling Nailers, who has a disastrous 3.51 GAA and a .857 save percentage in just nine appearances for the Penguins.

I don’t even have to mention anything about Providence’s goaltending situation. Projected Game 1 starter Jeremy Smith was loaned out to the Iowa Wild at the beginning of the season but was recalled back when Malcolm Subban went down with injury in February and has a 2.02 GAA with a .934 save percentage since his return to Providence.

Advantage: Providence. End of story.

Intangibles

Coaching and special teams gets a mention here. Providence’s Bruce Cassidy is in discussion for a promotion to Boston come the Fall. He always has his team ready to play and in contention to win most nights. Clark Donatelli took over for Mike Sullivan once Sullivan was promoted to the head coaching position of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Donatelli’s record since assuming the coaching position is 25-22-4-2. To be fair, when Donatelli took over, most of the pawns that got the Penguins off to such a hot start were either recalled to or on their way to being recalled to Pittsburgh. In Donatelli’s defense, he has done a fair job of steering the ship towards a playoff spot. I can’t see one coach outfoxing the other in any circumstance here in a quick five game series.

Special teams wise, the Bruins had the AHL’s best power play, scoring 22.6% of the time, but only once in 29 tries against the Penguins in the six game regular season series. The Penguins have the seventh best power play in the AHL but only struck once in 25 tries against the Bruins. I’m still going to slightly lean towards Providence in the special teams department given all the firepower up front and the question mark for the Penguins in goal.

Social Media Coverage

For the Penguins…

Twitter: @WBSPenguins / @WBSGameDay
Radio: @MikeOBrienWBS / @_NickHart
Beat: @CVSethLakso and @TLTomVenesky
Facebook: /WilkesBarreScrantonPenguins
Instagram: wbspenguins

For the Bruins…

Twitter: @AHLBruins
Radio: No idea.
Beat: @MarkDivver
Facebook: /providencebruins
Instagram: ahlbruins

Prediction

Bruins in four. Providence’s high powered offense overmatches the Penguins disarray of flavor of the week goaltending and Wilkes-Barre is blown away in four games. Penguins steal one game, probably a nail biter in overtime but that’s all she wrote. Additions from Pittsburgh in the form of either a goaltender in Tristan Jarry or more offense in the form of Daniel Sprong, whose junior season ended Sunday, do little to help the Penguins who will likely be overmatched and run out of the building by names like Vatrano, Khokhlachev and Czarnik.

Hey, I would love to be wrong, but I’m calling it as I see it. Gameday for Game 1 hits the blog Wednesday afternoon at 3.

The AHL

2016 Calder Cup Preview

1 Comment Posted by on April 18, 2016

cc16_200

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The 2016 Calder Cup Playoffs are upon us. I’m shaking things up this year on the blog and just doing one preview for the blog instead of breaking down the Western Conference one day and the Eastern Conference the next.

Pretty much self-explanatory. I go out on a limb and offer predictions in each series (except the Penguins / Bruins series, which gets the full work-up Tuesday) and give a thumbnail sketch on each team.

So let’s get to it…

Eastern Conference

HER   Hershey (A1) vs. Portland (A4)   POR

How the Bears got here: When Wilkes-Barre got off to its strong start, it was looking like the Penguins were going to run away with things, but then injuries befuddled the Penguins organization and the Bears remained steady in winning games and staying on pace. The rest of the division was too inconsistent. Bears won the division easily.

How the Pirates got here: Portland played slightly better than Bridgeport and Hartford down the stretch for fourth place in the final weeks of the season, going 6-3-1 to Bridgeport’s 4-5-1 and Hartford’s 5-5.

How they match up: The Bears went 5-5 against the Pirates, including one overtime win. Hershey is the third highest scoring team in the AHL, Portland was 11th in defense.

Key Player for Hershey: Chris Bourque, league MVP is the obvious choice.

Key Player for Portland: Rob Schremp. The Pirates All-Star led Portland in games played and points.

Prediction: Bears in five. Of all the series in the East, this one goes the distance.

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PRO   Providence (A2) vs. Wilkes-Barre / Scranton (A3)   WBS

How the Bruins got here: When parent Boston missed the playoffs, the Bruins offense was injected with Frank Vatrano who has scored a goal per game for the Bruins. Providence won their final five games in a row to edge past the Penguins for the two seed.

How the Penguins got here: Started the season strong, lost personnel to recall to Pittsburgh as well as their head coach. Have played at or near .500 since. Could not withstand Providence’s late charge in final weeks.

How they match up: Wilkes-Barre won the first two games in the six game season series, but Providence rattled off the last four wins. The P-Bruins have the leagues best power play but only scored once in 29 tries against the Penguins. They also have the leagues second best penalty kill.

Key Player for Providence: Co-Rookie of the Year Frank Vatrano, who scored 36 goals in 36 games.

Key Player for Wilkes-Barre / Scranton: Carter Rowney. The little known Rowney played his way into an NHL contract with Pittsburgh next season and led the Penguins in points.

Prediction: I am not giving it away here. Check back Tuesday for the full series breakdown.

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TOR   Toronto (N1) vs. Bridgeport (A5)   BRI

How the Marlies got here: By being the best team in the AHL from wire to wire.

How the Sound Tigers got here: Qualified on the last weekend of the regular season. Couldn’t win to improve their seeding and drew the odds on favorite to win the Calder Cup.

How they match up: These two teams did not face each other so it’s the classic David vs. Goliath matchup.

Key Player for Toronto: Defenseman of the Year T.J. Brennan, whose +/- was +34. He overshadows fellow defenseman Andrew Campbell, who had a +/- of +39.

Key Player for Bridgeport: Bracken Kearns led the Sound Tigers in scoring.

Prediction: Toronto in three. Marlies will make this round look easy.

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ALB   Albany (N2) vs. Utica (N3)   button_uti200

How the Devils got here: They played in the wrong division. Albany would have won the Atlantic if they played there. They flew under the radar all season on strong defense and timely scoring.

How Utica got here: Comets feasted on the bottom feeders in the division, going a combined 20-10-3-1 against Syracuse, St. John’s Rochester and Binghamton.

How they match up: The Devils went 6-0-2 against Utica this season. Albany is the stingiest team in the AHL for shots allowed, suppressing opponents to 24.41 shots per game. The Comets led the AHL in shorthanded goals for with 17.

Key Player for Albany: Strength in numbers. Nearly every Devils player has a positive plus minus. Scott Wedgewood went 14-3-3 with a minuscule 1.55 GAA and a .933 SV%.

Key Player for Utica: Carter Bancks. Heart and soul of this Utica team and a guy that appeared in every game for the Comets.

Prediction: Albany in four. Comets steal a game early, but the Devils correct, lock down and don’t let go.

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Western Conference

Admittedly, didn’t see much Western Conference this season, maybe but for the occasional game here or there on AHL Live. Buyer beware on these predictions…

button_15mil200   Milwaukee (C1) vs. Grand Rapids (C4)   button_15gr200

How the Admirals got here: Winners of the Central Division, consistently stayed well above average the other contenders in the division. Only other team with 100 or more points was Toronto.

How the Griffins got here: A team primed at the start of the season to run away with the Central and be a strong contender for the Calder Cup stumbled out of the gate. Streaks chased this team all season long.

How they match up: Every game was decided in regulation. The Admirals went 3-5 against the Griffins this season. Milwaukee has the leagues second best power play. Grand Rapids is 5th in the AHL in offense and 6th in the AHL in defense.

Key Player for Milwaukee: Goaltender Juuse Saros. The rookie Saros went 29-8 and was overshadowed in the West when it came to awards.

Key Player for Grand Rapids: Eric Tangradi 28 goals and 28 assists in 72 games for the power forward.

Prediction: Milwaukee in five. One of two series out West that goes the distance.

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button_le200   Lake Erie (C2) vs. Rockford (C3)   button_rfd200

How the Monsters got here: Remained consistent in the face of inconsistency around them with the likes of Rockford and Grand Rapids.

How the IceHogs got here: Fizzled in the final month but finished strong.

How they match up: The Monsters were 4-4 over the IceHogs this season, with one overtime win. If Lake Erie scores first, forget about it. The Monsters went 28-2-3-3 when scoring first. The IceHogs were 3-10 in the gimmick known as three on three overtime.

Key Player for Lake Erie: Group effort. T.J. Tynan led the Monsters with 46 points. Lake Erie was the third stingiest team in the AHL on defense. It’s no one player that can beat you, which makes the Monsters so dangerous.

Key Player for Rockford: Vinnie Hinostroza. The rookie center led the IceHogs in scoring.

Prediction: Lake Erie in five. Monsters methodical, come at you from all sides tactics is enough to dismiss Rockford in the short five game series.

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button_ont200   Ontario (P1) vs. San Jose (P4)   button_sjb200

How the Reign got here: The reincarnate Calder Cup Champions never missed a beat and remained a force in the Pacific Division, where they led wire to wire.

How the Barracuda got here: Got in on the last day of the playoffs. Their .537 winning percentage is lowest amongst qualifying playoff teams.

How they match up: The Reign went 9-3 against the Barracuda this season, with three overtime wins. Ontario was the top defensive team, allowing just 2.03 goals to opponents per game.

Key Player for Ontario: Peter Budaj. The AHL’s best goaltender went 42-14-4 with a 1.75 GAA and a .932 save percentage. He will be the difference maker.

Key Player for San Jose: Ryan Carpenter. San Jose’s leading scorer was also a team best +20.

Prediction: Ontario in three. It won’t be pretty for San Jose.

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button_sd200   San Diego (P2) vs. Texas (P3)   button_15tex200

How the Gulls got here: Defended home ice, 20-10-3-1 at Valley View Casino Center.

How the Stars got here: If the Stars played in a division where everyone played the same amount of games, in this division they still face San Diego, but would have home ice.

How they match up: The last team the Gulls wanted to face were the Stars, who they only beat once.

Key Player for San Diego: Rookie Defenseman Brandon Montour. 57 points that tied him with Chris Mueller in the team lead in points.

Key Player for Texas: Stars had nine players with 40 or more points. They can come at you from all angles.

Prediction: Stars in four. San Diego steals one, probably in overtime, but the matchup heavily favors the Stars to advance.

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Let me know if you are agree or disagree here. My full Preview of Pens / P-Bruins with an actual prediction hits the blog Tuesday.

The AHL

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