Chirps from Center Ice

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Everyones favorite time of year, it’s time to see who loses to Hershey for the Calder Cup Playoffs!

I jest, kind of, with that last statement, but don’t see how the Bears are troubled and see a repeat in Hershey’s future. A baker’s dozen, thirteen Calder Cups.

But in order to get there, the Bears will need to navigate four rounds.

Now, I expect these to be wrong in parts and right in parts. Of course the Penguins fan in me wants to see Hershey lose in the first round via sweep and for the Penguins to win every playoff game by fifteen goals. That just isn’t going to happen. But let’s do it anyway.

Before we do, a moment of silence for the Bridgeport Islanders, Springfield Thunderbirds, Utica Comets, Laval Rocket, Iowa Wild, Chicago Wolves, Henderson Silver Knights, San Diego Gulls and San Jose Barracuda. For the Barracuda, this is the third season they have missed the playoffs under this extended format. Every other team has qualified at least once. That is pretty bad. So if you think you have it bad, just be happy you aren’t a Barracuda fan.

Here’s how the concept works, the first round is best of three, division semifinals and finals best of five then best of seven for the conference finals and Calder Cup Finals.

Let’s start in the Pacific Division and work our way east.

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First Round Bye: Coachella Valley Firebirds

First Round, Best of Three

(2) Tucson Roadrunners vs. (7) Calgary Wranglers: Because of distance all three are being played in Arizona. The Coyotes loaded up the Roadrunners with talent for the push. Early returns are positive, Roadrunners in three.

(3) Ontario Reign vs. (6) Bakersfield Condors: Gotta go with the hotter team in the moment in these best of threes. Strap in, because it’s going to become a theme here. I’ll give Bakersfield the benefit of the doubt here, but it’s the 8-2 in their last ten Ontario Reign advancing in three.

(4) Colorado Eagles vs. (5) Abbotsford Canucks: Another series played at one place (Colorado) – matchup doesn’t favor one over the other, but Abbotsford has been on a tear of late (8-1-1-1) and I think that’s enough to get them across and through to the next round, but this is the weakest and least confident First Round pick I am making here. Canucks in three.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(1) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (5) Abbotsford Canucks: Really impressed by Coachella Valley’s body of work here this season. It’s like they didn’t miss a beat and were the only other team not named Hershey to go over 100+ points in the season. Coachella Valley went 7-0-1 against the Canucks here and that trend continues, Firebirds in three.

(2) Tucson Roadrunners vs. (3) Ontario Reign: Matchup was dead heat in regular season. I think Tucson may be legit but this very well be because I don’t see enough of either team, Ontario especially. Follow your gut, Jason. Tucson in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: Both teams ended up 4-3-0-1 against each other. It’s something you expected Hershey to do that they never did but I think the “running out of steam” part clips the Firebirds here and it’s Tucson in five, advancing to the Conference Finals.

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First Round Byes: Milwaukee Admirals, Rockford IceHogs, Grand Rapids Griffins

First Round, Best of Three

(4) Texas Stars vs. (5) Manitoba Moose: Go with the hotter team in the moment of a flashpan series such as this. Texas was 4-6 in its last ten, 2-4-1-1 against the Moose. Manitoba is 6-4 in their last ten and 6-2 against the Stars. I could see it go three because of the home ice in Texas factor, but let’s not overthink it and select Moose in two.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (5) Manitoba Moose: I debated this one longer than I should have because I think I am picking too many favorites in this, but Milwaukee finished 26 points better than the Moose this season and aren’t going out to a team they beat by 25+ points in their first playoff action. Milwaukee in four.

(2) Grand Rapids Griffins vs. (3) Rockford IceHogs: Both teams played each other in a dead heat for the most part and Grand Rapids’ 86 points was just one better than Rockford’s 85. Some series scream going the distance, this is one of them. Toss a coin, because neither team gets out of the next round. Heads Griffins, Tails IceHogs. It’s Heads. Grand Rapids in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (2) Grand Rapids Griffins: Any other year I think I would like this matchup more for Grand Rapids and maybe I am wrong and I likely am, but I really can’t see any scenario where the Admirals are really in any danger. I think it’s a methodical takedown for Karl Taylor’s Admirals, who advance in four.

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First Round Bye: Cleveland Monsters

First Round, Best of Three

(4) Belleville Senators vs. (5) Toronto Marlies: So I like the lunchpail mentality of the B-Sens here and expect them to win this division. It starts here. Toronto gives them a ride, but it’s the Belleville Senators moving on in three games.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(2) Rochester Americans vs. (3) Syracuse Crunch: These two teams were in contention for the North Division crown on the last day with Cleveland. Syracuse could have wrapped things up the day before but didn’t. That cost them home ice too, but I don’t think it matters here. You have to go with the hotter team in the moment and that is the 8-1-1 Rochester Americans, who advance via sweep.

(1) Cleveland Monsters vs. (4) Belleville Senators: It’s a bad matchup for Belleville, who went 1-3 against Cleveland, but there’s something about a team getting hot at the right time in any given point in the season. Cleveland is the weakest division winner out of Hershey, Coachella Valley and Milwaukee and I smell upset, Belleville in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(2) Rochester Americans vs. (4) Belleville Senators: Should be a knock down, drag out, multiple overtime type of series that is won on a razor’s edge. No stopping them now, Belleville in five.

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First Round Byes: Hershey Bears, Providence Bruins

First Round, Best of Three.

(3) Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins vs. (6) Lehigh Valley Phantoms: I don’t see any scenario where this doesn’t end in a sweep for the Penguins. The Penguins were 8-1-2-1 against the Phantoms this season. I mean sure, you can argue that the Phantoms steal a game, but Joel Blomqvist is too good in goal and the defenders and reinforcements from Pittsburgh have played the system all season long. Penguins in two.

(4) Charlotte Checkers vs. (5) Hartford Wolf Pack: Because of distance, all three games are being played at Charlotte, with Hartford being the “de facto” home team in Game 2, but that just means last change. Checkers will be sleeping in their own beds and all that but I still don’t think that matters. Hartford stumbled big down the stretch, turned it on a bit late, but it’s Charlotte advancing in three.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five.

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (4) Charlotte Checkers: I think it’s a good matchup for the Checkers who push the Bears and scare them a few times. This could be one played on a razors edge, but it’s Hershey moving on in four.

(2) Providence Bruins vs. (3) Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins: I could see this going five and will stick with that. Penguins don’t lead at all in the series, tie it in games two and four but Providence is built for this and overcome in five and advance.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (2) Providence Bruins: Bad, bad matchup for the Bruins, who went 1-3-1-1 against Hershey this season. Todd Nelson works out any bugs that were there in a too tight for his liking Charlotte series and Hershey sweeps it’s way into the Conference Finals.

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Eastern Conference Finals, Best of Seven

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (4) Belleville Senators: So let me stop here and say that I think that no matter who comes out of the Atlantic, that team is going to advance to the Calder Cup Finals because I can’t see any team in the North beating any team in the Atlantic capable of getting to this point four times in a series. Spin it any way you want with however many teams you want, but since it’s me behind the keyboard it’s Hershey in five here.

Western Conference Finals, Best of Seven

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: A lot of people predicted a while ago that it would be Hershey and Milwaukee in the Calder Cup Finals, in a rematch of the 2005-06 Calder Cup Finals. Those people are wrong. It’s Tucson as the de facto Cinderella team that has the right ingredients to make a run all the way to the Finals. Roadrunners in six.

Calder Cup Finals, Best of Seven

The Hershey Bears set record after record this season. The Bears bested records that other Bears teams set, some really good Bears teams from long ago, quite easily. There hasn’t been any stopping this team all season. Take it from someone who watched them play his favorite team twelve times. They force errors, they capitalize and feast on those errors. They have two really good goaltenders in Clay Stevenson and Hunter Shepard playing goal. Combined, they have an astonishing 12 shutouts and a 51-14-5 record with a 1.91 save percentage. Giant Center is an impenetrable fortress seemingly for the opponents, the Bears went 29-7 at home this season. On paper, there’s no stopping them. But they don’t play these on paper, they play them on ice.

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: I can see the Roadrunners giving the Bears a scare, like the Firebirds did last season with Hershey but the story ends the same way it did last year for the defending champs. Todd Nelson makes adjustments, Hershey repeats for back-to-back Calder Cups and they switch to the other side of the ice at Giant Center and hang their thirteenth Calder Cup banner this Fall opposite the twelve they have on the other side. Hershey in five.

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That’s how it plays out in my head. I am probably way off base here and will probably shoot 40% or lower on my picks. Congrats on the Calder Cup, Condors fans!