Chirps from Center Ice

Well, it’s the middle of July and you know what that means…

AHL Schedule for 2024-25 headed your way Thursday. My guess is in the afternoon. Some notes…

Pens open Saturday, October 11 at home against Charlotte. Opening night is the night prior League wide.

The Penguins are not anyone’s opener. Remember last year they were on I think two or three other teams openers (Charlotte, Utica and Hartford if I remember right)

Interesting that Toronto opens with San Diego. Do the Penguins see any Western conference teams and if so at the expense of what team or teams? When they did the Milwaukee, Rockford, Grand Rapids deal a few years ago they weren’t in Laval, Belleville or Toronto.

Cut two games each from Lehigh Valley and Hershey and you can make a Western Conference team or two work while seeing everyone in the Conference.

Nothing on realignment, would like to see Colorado and Tucson go to the Central for an 8-8-8-8 setup.

Back tomorrow to break it all down.

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Everyones favorite time of year, it’s time to see who loses to Hershey for the Calder Cup Playoffs!

I jest, kind of, with that last statement, but don’t see how the Bears are troubled and see a repeat in Hershey’s future. A baker’s dozen, thirteen Calder Cups.

But in order to get there, the Bears will need to navigate four rounds.

Now, I expect these to be wrong in parts and right in parts. Of course the Penguins fan in me wants to see Hershey lose in the first round via sweep and for the Penguins to win every playoff game by fifteen goals. That just isn’t going to happen. But let’s do it anyway.

Before we do, a moment of silence for the Bridgeport Islanders, Springfield Thunderbirds, Utica Comets, Laval Rocket, Iowa Wild, Chicago Wolves, Henderson Silver Knights, San Diego Gulls and San Jose Barracuda. For the Barracuda, this is the third season they have missed the playoffs under this extended format. Every other team has qualified at least once. That is pretty bad. So if you think you have it bad, just be happy you aren’t a Barracuda fan.

Here’s how the concept works, the first round is best of three, division semifinals and finals best of five then best of seven for the conference finals and Calder Cup Finals.

Let’s start in the Pacific Division and work our way east.

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First Round Bye: Coachella Valley Firebirds

First Round, Best of Three

(2) Tucson Roadrunners vs. (7) Calgary Wranglers: Because of distance all three are being played in Arizona. The Coyotes loaded up the Roadrunners with talent for the push. Early returns are positive, Roadrunners in three.

(3) Ontario Reign vs. (6) Bakersfield Condors: Gotta go with the hotter team in the moment in these best of threes. Strap in, because it’s going to become a theme here. I’ll give Bakersfield the benefit of the doubt here, but it’s the 8-2 in their last ten Ontario Reign advancing in three.

(4) Colorado Eagles vs. (5) Abbotsford Canucks: Another series played at one place (Colorado) – matchup doesn’t favor one over the other, but Abbotsford has been on a tear of late (8-1-1-1) and I think that’s enough to get them across and through to the next round, but this is the weakest and least confident First Round pick I am making here. Canucks in three.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(1) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (5) Abbotsford Canucks: Really impressed by Coachella Valley’s body of work here this season. It’s like they didn’t miss a beat and were the only other team not named Hershey to go over 100+ points in the season. Coachella Valley went 7-0-1 against the Canucks here and that trend continues, Firebirds in three.

(2) Tucson Roadrunners vs. (3) Ontario Reign: Matchup was dead heat in regular season. I think Tucson may be legit but this very well be because I don’t see enough of either team, Ontario especially. Follow your gut, Jason. Tucson in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: Both teams ended up 4-3-0-1 against each other. It’s something you expected Hershey to do that they never did but I think the “running out of steam” part clips the Firebirds here and it’s Tucson in five, advancing to the Conference Finals.

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First Round Byes: Milwaukee Admirals, Rockford IceHogs, Grand Rapids Griffins

First Round, Best of Three

(4) Texas Stars vs. (5) Manitoba Moose: Go with the hotter team in the moment of a flashpan series such as this. Texas was 4-6 in its last ten, 2-4-1-1 against the Moose. Manitoba is 6-4 in their last ten and 6-2 against the Stars. I could see it go three because of the home ice in Texas factor, but let’s not overthink it and select Moose in two.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (5) Manitoba Moose: I debated this one longer than I should have because I think I am picking too many favorites in this, but Milwaukee finished 26 points better than the Moose this season and aren’t going out to a team they beat by 25+ points in their first playoff action. Milwaukee in four.

(2) Grand Rapids Griffins vs. (3) Rockford IceHogs: Both teams played each other in a dead heat for the most part and Grand Rapids’ 86 points was just one better than Rockford’s 85. Some series scream going the distance, this is one of them. Toss a coin, because neither team gets out of the next round. Heads Griffins, Tails IceHogs. It’s Heads. Grand Rapids in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (2) Grand Rapids Griffins: Any other year I think I would like this matchup more for Grand Rapids and maybe I am wrong and I likely am, but I really can’t see any scenario where the Admirals are really in any danger. I think it’s a methodical takedown for Karl Taylor’s Admirals, who advance in four.

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First Round Bye: Cleveland Monsters

First Round, Best of Three

(4) Belleville Senators vs. (5) Toronto Marlies: So I like the lunchpail mentality of the B-Sens here and expect them to win this division. It starts here. Toronto gives them a ride, but it’s the Belleville Senators moving on in three games.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five

(2) Rochester Americans vs. (3) Syracuse Crunch: These two teams were in contention for the North Division crown on the last day with Cleveland. Syracuse could have wrapped things up the day before but didn’t. That cost them home ice too, but I don’t think it matters here. You have to go with the hotter team in the moment and that is the 8-1-1 Rochester Americans, who advance via sweep.

(1) Cleveland Monsters vs. (4) Belleville Senators: It’s a bad matchup for Belleville, who went 1-3 against Cleveland, but there’s something about a team getting hot at the right time in any given point in the season. Cleveland is the weakest division winner out of Hershey, Coachella Valley and Milwaukee and I smell upset, Belleville in five.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(2) Rochester Americans vs. (4) Belleville Senators: Should be a knock down, drag out, multiple overtime type of series that is won on a razor’s edge. No stopping them now, Belleville in five.

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First Round Byes: Hershey Bears, Providence Bruins

First Round, Best of Three.

(3) Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins vs. (6) Lehigh Valley Phantoms: I don’t see any scenario where this doesn’t end in a sweep for the Penguins. The Penguins were 8-1-2-1 against the Phantoms this season. I mean sure, you can argue that the Phantoms steal a game, but Joel Blomqvist is too good in goal and the defenders and reinforcements from Pittsburgh have played the system all season long. Penguins in two.

(4) Charlotte Checkers vs. (5) Hartford Wolf Pack: Because of distance, all three games are being played at Charlotte, with Hartford being the “de facto” home team in Game 2, but that just means last change. Checkers will be sleeping in their own beds and all that but I still don’t think that matters. Hartford stumbled big down the stretch, turned it on a bit late, but it’s Charlotte advancing in three.

Division Semifinals, Best of Five.

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (4) Charlotte Checkers: I think it’s a good matchup for the Checkers who push the Bears and scare them a few times. This could be one played on a razors edge, but it’s Hershey moving on in four.

(2) Providence Bruins vs. (3) Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins: I could see this going five and will stick with that. Penguins don’t lead at all in the series, tie it in games two and four but Providence is built for this and overcome in five and advance.

Division Finals, Best of Five

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (2) Providence Bruins: Bad, bad matchup for the Bruins, who went 1-3-1-1 against Hershey this season. Todd Nelson works out any bugs that were there in a too tight for his liking Charlotte series and Hershey sweeps it’s way into the Conference Finals.

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Eastern Conference Finals, Best of Seven

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (4) Belleville Senators: So let me stop here and say that I think that no matter who comes out of the Atlantic, that team is going to advance to the Calder Cup Finals because I can’t see any team in the North beating any team in the Atlantic capable of getting to this point four times in a series. Spin it any way you want with however many teams you want, but since it’s me behind the keyboard it’s Hershey in five here.

Western Conference Finals, Best of Seven

(1) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: A lot of people predicted a while ago that it would be Hershey and Milwaukee in the Calder Cup Finals, in a rematch of the 2005-06 Calder Cup Finals. Those people are wrong. It’s Tucson as the de facto Cinderella team that has the right ingredients to make a run all the way to the Finals. Roadrunners in six.

Calder Cup Finals, Best of Seven

The Hershey Bears set record after record this season. The Bears bested records that other Bears teams set, some really good Bears teams from long ago, quite easily. There hasn’t been any stopping this team all season. Take it from someone who watched them play his favorite team twelve times. They force errors, they capitalize and feast on those errors. They have two really good goaltenders in Clay Stevenson and Hunter Shepard playing goal. Combined, they have an astonishing 12 shutouts and a 51-14-5 record with a 1.91 save percentage. Giant Center is an impenetrable fortress seemingly for the opponents, the Bears went 29-7 at home this season. On paper, there’s no stopping them. But they don’t play these on paper, they play them on ice.

(1) Hershey Bears vs. (2) Tucson Roadrunners: I can see the Roadrunners giving the Bears a scare, like the Firebirds did last season with Hershey but the story ends the same way it did last year for the defending champs. Todd Nelson makes adjustments, Hershey repeats for back-to-back Calder Cups and they switch to the other side of the ice at Giant Center and hang their thirteenth Calder Cup banner this Fall opposite the twelve they have on the other side. Hershey in five.

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That’s how it plays out in my head. I am probably way off base here and will probably shoot 40% or lower on my picks. Congrats on the Calder Cup, Condors fans!

Another year, another schedule release.

League release here. Penguins release here.

Let’s just cut and paste last year’s questions in this years blog post.

1) Do you have a schedule matrix of opponents? Anyone in the Conference we are not playing?

Same as last year. No Western Conference teams.

2) Longest road trip? Longest home stand?

Road trip: Looks like five in a row in mid-November and another in February.

Home stand: Four games in December, and a bunch of threes in a row, scattered about in different months.

3) How many three in threes?

There were two last year. The benefit of a 72 game schedule. There are four this year; one in January, one in March and two in April. Yeah, it doesn’t make any sense to me either.

4) How many work night and Sunday home games?

Per the chart, 10 Wednesday home games and three (two in January and one in April) Sunday home games.

5) Any off the wall schedule time quirks?

No.

6) Where’s the All-Star Classic this year?

Do you know the way to San Jose? If so, head there in the beginning of February 2024.

7) Playoff structure?

Nothing official yet. Assume the same 23 team structure from this past year.

8) What about preseason games?

From the Penguins release…

The Penguins will also play four preseason games to prepare for their 25^th season. The first exhibition contest will be on Tuesday, Oct. 3 against Lehigh Valley at PPL Center. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton returns home for its next exhibition game Wednesday, Oct. 4 against Hershey at 10:30 a.m. The Black and Gold wrap up their preseason schedule by visiting the Bears on Friday, Oct. 6 and then hosting the Phantoms on Saturday, Oct. 7 at 6:05 p.m.

Another 10:30 a.m. preseason game! Yippee!

Back to summer. Talk to you in the Fall.

Everybody’s favorite time of year, it’s the Calder Cup Playoffs. 23 teams will be vying for the Championship in June.

I expect these to be wrong in parts and right in parts. Just hope to have the Conference Finals right and maybe the Calder Cup Finals participants correct.

I think it’s a wide open field, but the favorites are the favorites because they have played that way all season long.

Let’s pour one out for the San Jose Barracuda, Henderson Silver Knights, San Diego Gulls, Grand Rapids Griffins, Chicago Wolves, Cleveland Monsters, Belleville Senators, Bridgeport Islanders and (sigh) the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Penguins as teams which missed the postseason. Better luck next year, guys.

Here’s how the concept works, the first round is best of three, division semifinals and finals best of five then best of seven for the conference finals and Calder Cup Finals.

Let’s start in the Pacific and work our way east.

First Round Bye: Calgary Wranglers

First Round, best of three.

(2) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (7) Tucson Roadrunners: Coachella Valley lost their final two games of the season, handing the regular season title to rival Calgary and have to face an extremely game but equally slumping Tuscon Roadrunners team. I’m not buying the hype though, Coachella Valley in two.

(3) Colorado Eagles vs. (6) Ontario Reign: Likely the most even matchup in the first round. Not a lot separates these teams, so go with the hotter team, Colorado who have won four straight coming in, vs. an Ontaio team who hit a ton of cold spells, losing their final three. Eagles in three.

(4) Abbotsford Canucks vs. (5) Bakersfield Condors: All of these games are going to be played in Abbotsford, which doesn’t bode well for Bakersfield who won 23 games at home. In these scenarios, you take the team with the home ice advantage. Abbotsford in three.

Division Semifinals, best of five.

(1) Calgary Wranglers vs. (4) Abbotsford Canucks: I think that Bakersfield gives the Canucks a run, and using all that energy up is really bad when you are facing a buzzsaw team in Calgary, who won the Macgregor Kilpatrick Trophy as the AHL’s best team in the regular season. Dustin Wolf is Him in goal, AHL’s best goaltender. Wranglers puts these other pretender teams on notice and win in a sweep to advance.

(2) Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. (3) Colorado Eagles: Tough one to call. Eagles are good, Coachella Valley played better. Colorado has been here before, the Firebirds have not. I think it goes five. I’m trusting my gut and picking Colorado to advance. Eagles in five.

Division Finals, best of five.

(1) Calgary Wranglers vs. (3) Colorado Eagles: These two teams met in the Pacific Division Finals last year, only the Wranglers were the Stockton Heat. The Heat won that series in four. This Wranglers team is better than that Heat team. Colorado has used up a lot so far, in getting past Ontario and Coachella Valley in the maximum allowable games. I think history repeats itself here, but it’s yet another Wranglers sweep.

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First Round Bye: Texas Stars

First Round, best of three.

(4) Iowa Wild vs. (5) Rockford IceHogs: Both teams clinched on the final day of the regular season and needed wins to get there. Iowa went 7-3-1-1 against the IceHogs in the regular season. Let’s not overthink things here. Iowa in three.

Division Semifinals, best of five.

(1) Texas Stars vs. (4) Iowa Wild: Texas’ only loss to the Wild came on the final day of the regular season, when Texas had already wrapped up the Central crown that got them the first round bye. Stars say bye to the Wild via sweep.

(2) Milwaukee Admirals vs. (3) Manitoba Moose: This is a bad matchup for the Admirals. I’d like the Moose if this were best of three. It’s not. Admirals survive a real scare here. Milwaukee in five.

Division Finals, best of five.

(1) Texas Stars vs. (2) Milwaukee Admirals: One of the reasons Texas was one of the final teams to sew up the division crown was the peskiness of the Milwaukee Admirals. I don’t think any of that matters in a tight series here. Stars in four.

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First Round Bye: Toronto Marlies

First Round, best of three.

(4) Utica Comets vs. (5) Laval Rocket: It’s a matchup which favors the Rocket, who went 5-1 against the Comets this season, but I don’t like Laval’s inconsistency here and it’s not a good matchup in the present day vs. a whole season, Utica takes this three games and advances.

Division Semifinals, best of five.

(1) Toronto Marlies vs. (4) Utica Comets: Toronto stumbled, in a big way, as the season ended, 1-6-2-1 in their last ten. I think it’s a scenario where either team can advance and you can make a strong case either way, but I think that the players lock in and get past the Comets in a series which will go the distance which sees the Marlies advancing in five.

(2) Syracuse Crunch vs. (3) Rochester Americans: It’s a matchup that favors the Crunch, and I think it’s one that they win in easily, but not without a few scares here and there. Crunch in four.

Division Finals, best of five.

(1) Toronto Marlies vs. (2) Syracuse Crunch: Toronto’s inconsistency at the end of the regular season is their undoing and the Crunch advance in five here.

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First Round Byes: Providence Bruins, Hershey Bears

First Round, best of three.

(3) Charlotte Checkers vs. (6) Lehigh Valley Phantoms: All games will be played in Charlotte with Lehigh Valley getting last change in Game 2 as the de facto “home” team. Phantoms give the Checkers a scare, but it’s the Checkers advancing as the most consistent non-top two team as they have played all season long, Checkers in three.

(4) Springfield Thunderbirds vs. (5) Hartford Wolf Pack: Hartford lost a cadre of really good players to recall on Saturday, how many of those players make it back in time for this series against Springfield will really determine how this one goes. In the end though, I think the Thunderbirds advance in three.

Division Semifinals, best of five.

(1) Providence Bruins vs. (4) Springfield Thunderbirds: Bruins tore through the division en route to their third division title in four years. I think Springfield gives them a run, with a few games making it to overtime, but the best team advances here, Bruins in four.

(2) Hershey Bears vs. (3) Charlotte Checkers: Bears inconsistency in the season cost them a chance at the number one seed in the division. I think the Bears inconsistency befells them eventually, but not here in a nail biter of a series, Bears in five.

Division Finals, best of five.

(1) Providence Bruins vs. (2) Hershey Bears: Hershey went 1-5 against the Bruins in the regular season. I think that plays a small role here, but Providence is too good of a team to get knocked out this early. Bruins in four.

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Eastern Conference Finals, best of seven.

(1) Providence Bruins vs. (2) Syracuse Crunch: Bruins make this look easy I think, and are just getting going, Providence in five.

Western Conference Finals, best of seven.

(1) Calgary Wranglers vs. (1) Texas Stars: Stars cut the Wranglers, but I just can’t see Calgary having any issues in this series. Wranglers in five.

Calder Cup Finals, best of seven.

Hold up, am I really picking chalk all the way here? I guess I am. I can’t see any viable path for any other team to get to this point other than Providence and Calgary unless there’s a major, major upset. Go back and look. Can Lehigh Valley get here? Conceivably, sure, but they need to beat Charlotte twice in a three game series in North Carolina to do so. Can Colorado get here? Sure, but they went 2-4-1-1 against Calgary, and the Wranglers will have a fully stocked team. I just don’t see how the two best teams in their conferences don’t end up here. On paper. They don’t play games on paper though, so we’ll see!

(1) Calgary Wranglers vs. (1) Providence Bruins: Calgary runs into a really good, really deep, really talented Providence team. But the Wranglers have played at such a high  level all season long, that it’s nothing really they can’t handle. There’s a few scares here. I think Providence takes Game 1 in Calgary, the Wranglers win in overtime in Game 2 to make it 1-1 heading back to Rhode Island. Wranglers win games three and four, Providence wins Game 5 in double OT to send it back to Calgary but it’s the Wranglers winning in a blowout to win the Calder Cup in six games.

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That’s how I see it. Let’s see how wrong I am. Congrats on the Calder Cup IceHogs fans!